SBR (Styrene-Butadiene Rubber) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price: As of May 22, 2026, the Business Network’s SBR benchmark price stood at RMB 15,775.00 per ton, down from RMB 15,800.00 per ton on May 21, RMB 15,816.67 per ton on May 20 and May 19, RMB 15,908.33 per ton on May 15, and RMB 15,875.00 per ton on May 14—indicating an overall slight downward trend.
2. Market Quotations: According to JinTou.com data as of May 22, 2026, SBR quotations varied significantly across dates—for instance, RMB 234 on May 22, RMB 238 on May 21, and RMB 275 on May 20—reflecting notable day-to-day volatility.
3. Average Deviation (Mean Deviation): Business Network data show the SBR average deviation was -RMB 204.16 per ton on May 22, 2026—re-expanding negatively after a prior narrowing; it further widened negatively to -RMB 207.50 per ton on May 18; narrowed negatively to -RMB 41.67 per ton on May 12; and further narrowed to -RMB 25.00 per ton on May 11.

(B) Producer Price Adjustments
1. On May 22, 2026, PetroChina Northeast’s emulsion-polymerized SBR prices were reduced by RMB 200 per ton; on the same day, Sinopec’s sales company adjusted its SBR ex-factory prices downward.
2. On May 21, 2026, Sinopec adjusted its SBR ex-factory prices downward.
3. On May 14, 2026, PetroChina Northeast raised its emulsion-polymerized SBR prices.
4. On May 11, 2026, PetroChina Northeast lowered its emulsion-polymerized SBR prices.

(C) Import/Export Data
1. In April 2026, China’s SBR exports totaled 37,890.39 metric tons—a marked month-on-month increase—while imports amounted to 36,544.73 metric tons.
2. In December 2024, China’s SBR imports totaled 34,874.80 metric tons; in September 2024, exports reached 14,063.26 metric tons; in July 2024, exports stood at 14,693.84 metric tons; and in February 2024, exports totaled 16,973.34 metric tons while imports reached 46,393.10 metric tons.

(D) Plant Operations
On May 20, 2026, Yangzi Petrochemical’s SBR production facility underwent a full-line shutdown for maintenance.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Causes of Price Volatility
1. Impact of Producer Price Adjustments: Frequent price adjustments by major producers—including PetroChina Northeast and Sinopec—directly influence the benchmark price and overall market trend. For example, the price reductions announced by PetroChina Northeast and Sinopec on May 22 contributed to the day’s decline in the benchmark price relative to the previous day.
2. Import/Export Dynamics: The significant month-on-month growth in SBR exports in April, alongside substantial import volumes, affects domestic supply-demand equilibrium. Increased exports may alleviate domestic supply pressure, exerting downward pressure on prices.
3. Plant Maintenance: The shutdown of Yangzi Petrochemical’s SBR facility for maintenance reduces market supply and provides some price support; however, given the prevailing downward price trend, this supportive effect appears relatively limited under current market conditions.
4. Average Deviation Reflects Supply-Demand Balance: The pattern of negative average deviation expanding after prior narrowing (e.g., on May 22 and May 18) suggests evolving supply-demand dynamics—specifically, widening negative deviation may signal relative oversupply or insufficient demand, thereby pressuring prices downward.

(B) Supply-Demand Assessment
1. Supply Side: Frequent price adjustments and plant maintenance activities indicate a degree of supply flexibility. Although maintenance reduces output, the prevailing downward price trend suggests that supply remains relatively ample—or is growing faster than demand.
2. Demand Side: Downstream demand, particularly from the tire industry—the primary consumer of SBR—is complex. On one hand, tire production activity provides underlying demand support: in 2024, full-steel tire operating rates started low but rebounded later in the year, while half-steel tire operating rates remained above year-ago levels; overall, tire production consumed more SBR year-on-year. On the other hand, recent price declines may imply that demand growth has failed to keep pace with supply changes—or reflect bearish market sentiment regarding future demand.

III. Outlook
(A) Price Trend Forecast
In the near term, SBR prices are likely to remain weak, trending slightly downward or consolidating sideways. Ongoing producer price cuts and the current supply-demand balance suggest continued supply adequacy—or even mild oversupply—exerting downward pressure on prices. However, dynamic market adjustments could trigger a rebound if demand strengthens notably or supply contracts significantly due to maintenance or other constraints.

(B) Supply-Demand Outlook
1. Supply Side: Over the coming period, supply may decrease should additional plants schedule maintenance or producers voluntarily curtail output for profitability reasons; conversely, stable operation and new capacity ramp-ups would boost supply.
2. Demand Side: Tire industry demand will be the pivotal factor. Sustained growth in the new-energy vehicle market—boosting original-equipment and replacement-tire demand—would positively impact SBR consumption. Conversely, deteriorating global economic conditions leading to lower auto sales would dampen demand. Overall, demand is expected to grow amid volatility, though the pace remains uncertain.