Sodium Carbonate Market Intelligence Report (Recent Commodity Market Dynamics)

I. Price Dynamics
- Domestic Prices:
- As of May 26, 2026, the mainstream transaction price ranged from RMB 1,050 to 1,350 per metric ton, exhibiting a slight upward oscillation trend; in certain regions, daily price increases reached up to RMB 40 per metric ton.
- Quotations from major producers—including Shandong Haihua and Jiangsu Xinsu—indicate that industrial-grade sodium carbonate (99% purity) is predominantly priced between RMB 1,200 and 1,350 per metric ton. Food-grade products command higher premiums; for instance, Shandong Haihua’s food-grade sodium carbonate is quoted at RMB 1,350–1,360 per metric ton.
- Regional price disparities persist: some suppliers in Henan Province quote as low as RMB 930 per metric ton, whereas high-purity sodium carbonate in Jiangsu Province reaches as high as RMB 11,000 per metric ton—likely attributable to specialized specifications or brand premium.

- International Prices:
- In 2025, China’s average export price for soda ash stood at USD 0.18 per kilogram (approximately RMB 1,260 per metric ton), representing a 24.54% year-on-year decline. This reflects a “volume growth, price decline” pattern.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
- Supply Side:
- In 2025, China’s total sodium carbonate production capacity reached 34.5 million metric tons, with apparent domestic consumption totaling approximately 29.8 million metric tons. Plant utilization rates remained high, ranging between 83% and 88%, and weekly output stabilized at 750,000–800,000 metric tons.
- Output in 2026 is projected at ~20 million metric tons, a 5% increase year-on-year. Overall supply remains abundant. Newly commissioned capacities—including Yuanxing Energy’s 2.8-million-ton Phase II project in Alxa (Inner Mongolia) and Jinshan Chemical’s 1.5-million-ton facility in Qianjiang (Hubei)—are further intensifying supply-side looseness.
- Inventory levels remain elevated: as of mid-March 2026, manufacturers’ aggregate inventory exceeded 1.9 million metric tons—a YoY increase of over 10%. High inventory constrains upside potential for prices.

- Demand Side:
- Domestic demand in 2026 is estimated at ~19 million metric tons, growing 4% YoY. Key demand segments include:
- The glass industry remains the largest end-use sector, consuming ~5 million metric tons (+6% YoY), albeit with moderating growth momentum.
- Steady demand persists from chemical feedstock, detergent, and papermaking applications.
- Emerging sectors—including photovoltaic (PV) glass, sodium-ion battery cathode precursor materials, and environmental water treatment—are experiencing notable demand growth.
- Penetration of high-end products (food-grade and pharmaceutical-grade) continues to rise: output of ultra-high-purity sodium carbonate (≥99.8%) is expected to reach 1.86 million metric tons in 2026, an 8.1% increase YoY.

III. Key Market Drivers
- Policy Support: Stricter environmental regulations are accelerating the phase-out of outdated ammonia-soda production capacity, boosting industry concentration. The CR5 (market share of the top five producers) is projected to rise from 52.4% in 2025 to 55.1% in 2026. Higher concentration fosters more rational price transmission mechanisms and improved profitability stability.
- Technological Advancement: The PV glass expansion cycle remains robust, generating an estimated additional sodium carbonate demand of ~850,000 metric tons. Light soda ash has achieved industrial-scale application in synthesizing lithium battery cathode precursors; usage in this segment is expected to exceed 180,000 metric tons in 2026.
- Export Growth: Benefiting from trade facilitation measures under the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s sodium carbonate exports surged to ~4 million metric tons in 2025—up nearly 15% YoY—with primary destinations including Southeast Asian nations and emerging economies such as India.

IV. Market Outlook
- Short-Term Price Trend: Constrained by abundant supply and high inventories, significant price appreciation is unlikely in the near term. However, demand growth from emerging sectors and increased export-oriented capacity will provide solid support to the price floor.
- Long-Term Price Trend: With demand release from PV glass, new energy, and other emerging fields—and supported by rising industry concentration and tightening environmental policies—sodium carbonate prices are expected to gradually recover. Nevertheless, upside remains capped by structural overcapacity and intensifying international competition.

V. Forecasts
- Demand Forecast: Domestic sodium carbonate demand in 2026 is projected to grow 4% YoY, with particularly strong growth anticipated in PV glass and new-energy applications, alongside sustained demand expansion for food-grade and pharmaceutical-grade high-purity products.
- Supply Forecast: Output is forecast to increase 5% YoY in 2026, maintaining overall supply adequacy. However, timing of new capacity ramp-ups and inventory dynamics will influence short-term price volatility.
- Price Forecast: Prices are expected to exhibit modest upward oscillation in the short term and gradual recovery over the longer term—though gains will remain constrained by overcapacity and global competitive pressures. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor PV glass capacity expansion progress, demand uptake in new-energy sectors, and enforcement intensity of environmental regulations.