I. Core Price Dynamics
1. Benzene Market
- From May 20–27, 2026, commercial benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports stood at 148,000 metric tons, down 8.64% week-on-week—continuing the destocking trend, albeit at a narrowing pace.
- Price volatility: The benchmark price was RMB 8,636.67/ton on May 1; it declined to RMB 8,520/ton on May 8—a drop of 1.35%; it rebounded to RMB 551/ton on May 21 (note: this figure appears inconsistent with typical benzene pricing levels and likely reflects a data unit or transcription error—e.g., possibly intended as RMB 8,551/ton—and requires verification against standard ton/RMB units), indicating intense short-term bulls-bears confrontation.
- Regional price differentials: The East China region—benefiting from port advantages—serves as the core consumption hub, exhibiting higher price sensitivity than other regions.

2. Para-Xylene (PX) Market
- As of May 27, 2025, U.S. PX closing prices rose by USD 15/ton to USD 893–903/ton (FOB U.S. Gulf), reflecting strengthened overseas cost support.
- Chinese market: In 2025, China’s PX capacity reached 43.79 million tons, output totaled 38.59 million tons, and apparent demand amounted to 48.20 million tons—resulting in an import dependency ratio of 19.93%. Nevertheless, absolute import volume remained substantial at 9.607 million tons, underscoring a tight supply-demand balance.

II. Driving Factor Analysis
1. Supply-Side Factors
- Benzene:
- Domestic capacity growth has slowed to 7%. Approximately 2.26 million tons of new capacity is scheduled for 2026 (e.g., Tangshan Dimu, Northern Huajin), while ~15% of aging facilities are being phased out. Coal-to-benzene route share has declined to 12%, with green transition policies constraining supply elasticity.
- Overseas supply contraction: South Korea plans to shut down 3–4 ethylene cracker units (reducing ~500,000 tons/year benzene capacity); Japan and Germany also have announced facility shutdown plans. Total benzene imports into China are projected to fall below 5.3 million tons in 2026.
- PX: Capacity is dominated by industry leaders such as Sinopec and Zhejiang Petrochemical. An integrated system covering feedstock supply, production, and logistics has taken shape in East China. However, despite rising self-sufficiency in 2025, import volumes remain sensitive to overseas cost fluctuations.

2. Demand-Side Factors
- Benzene:
- Traditional demand remains stable: Styrene accounts for 48% of benzene consumption; its capacity growth has slowed to 2.9%, but improved exports provide incremental demand support. Aniline, adipic acid, and related derivatives collectively account for ~30% of demand, showing modest growth.
- Emerging demand remains weak: Electronic-grade solvents, pharmaceutical intermediates, etc., represent less than 5% of total demand—indicating sluggish structural upgrading.
- PX: Downstream PTA demand is tightly coupled with the polyester industry. China’s PTA capacity expansion in 2025 supports PX demand; however, end-market textile exports face constraints from trade barriers.

3. Cost & Policy Factors
- Crude oil price volatility directly impacts cost structures across the aromatic hydrocarbons value chain. Geopolitical risks—including Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade policy shifts—are intensifying market uncertainty in 2026.
- China’s “Dual Carbon” (carbon peak & carbon neutrality) policy accelerates the phase-out of coal-based routes, driving industry consolidation. Sinopec and CNPC are optimizing supply structures via integrated refining-petrochemical projects.

III. Risk Alerts
1. Benzene Market
- Short-term risk: Pre-Spring Festival pressure to digest high inventory clashes with downstream resistance to rapid price hikes—if prices rise too sharply, technical corrections may occur.
- Long-term risk: Asia’s demand growth rate stands at only 1.6%; globally relaxed production could shift toward China, thereby suppressing domestic market recovery.
2. PX Market
- Overseas cost transmission: Rising U.S. PX prices may elevate China’s import costs; close monitoring of transatlantic price spreads is warranted.
- End-market demand resilience: The polyester sector remains highly export-dependent; escalation of global trade friction could erode demand support.

IV. Trend Outlook
1. Benzene
- Upward shift in price center: Average 2026 prices are expected to rebound from the 2025 low point (RMB 5,318/ton), though structural constraints will cap upside potential—forecast trading range: RMB 8,000–9,000/ton.
- Optimized supply-demand fundamentals: Slower capacity expansion and retirement of outdated facilities provide structural support; traditional demand sectors offer a floor, while export improvement delivers marginal momentum—market dynamics are gradually transitioning from oversupply toward equilibrium.
2. PX
- Import-cost driven pricing: Rising U.S. PX prices may lift China’s import costs; meanwhile, improving domestic capacity utilization suggests PX prices in 2026 will track crude oil movements—but with lower volatility than in 2025.
- Accelerated industry consolidation: Leading enterprises are reinforcing market positions through economies of scale and integrated operations, placing smaller-scale producers under mounting pressure to exit—further elevating industry concentration.