PX (Para-Xylene) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends
1. Futures Market:
- On May 25, 2026, the continuous main futures contract for PX declined by 4% intraday, trading at RMB 8,462.00/ton.
- On May 22, the settlement price of the PX futures main contract was RMB 8,502/ton, up RMB 74/ton (0.87%) from the previous trading day.
- On May 22, the Asian PX market weakened: FOB Korea prices ranged between USD 1,158–1,160/ton; CFR China prices ranged between USD 1,179–1,181/ton.

2. Spot Market:
- On May 22, 2026, Sinopec’s PX ex-factory price remained stable at RMB 9,900/ton, uniformly applied across East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions.
- From May 15 to May 22, 2026, the domestic mixed xylene market rose modestly: the benchmark price increased from RMB 6,765.75/ton to RMB 6,977.67/ton, a rise of 3.13%.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Capacity: As of 2025, China’s PX capacity reached 43.79 million tons, with output totaling 38.59 million tons—a 2.47% year-on-year increase.
- Import Status: In 2025, China imported 9.607 million tons of PX, up 2.41% YoY; import dependency fell to 19.93%. In April 2026, there were zero exports; import data—based on shipment/receipt locations—showed primary sources as South Korea, Japan, Brunei, and Taiwan, China.
- Plant Operations: Domestic state-owned refinery operations and Shandong independent refineries remain stable; however, some refineries are limiting output due to low profitability, resulting in reduced market liquidity. Mixed xylene inventories at East China ports remain at a low level of 80,000–90,000 tons, and traders exhibit strong reluctance to sell (‘hoarding sentiment’).

2. Demand Side:
- Downstream PTA: In 2025, China’s PTA output totaled 73.01 million tons, with apparent demand at 69.21 million tons. PX industry operating rates held steady around 78%, supporting stable procurement volumes of mixed xylene.
- Other Applications: Demand in solvent applications—including coatings, inks, and adhesives—has rebounded, driven by improved end-user orders; blending fuel demand remains stable, while Southeast Asian export orders have risen sequentially, with weekly export volumes averaging 5,000–7,000 tons.

III. Cost Structure & Profitability
1. Cost Support:
- International crude oil prices rebounded amid volatility; Brent crude oil futures (July contract) settled at USD 102.58/barrel, pushing up naphtha prices across Asia and lifting the cost base for the aromatic hydrocarbons chain.
- Refineries’ production costs rose alongside higher feedstock prices, prompting continued upward adjustments in ex-factory quotations and reinforcing a firm pricing stance.

2. Profitability:
- In 2025, the PX industry maintained relatively high profitability under a tight supply-demand balance. However, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), the supply-demand balance is projected to shift from ‘tight’ to ‘loose’, leading to an expected decline in profitability.
- Rising concentration in the downstream PTA sector has strengthened its bargaining power, exerting downward pressure on PX profit margins.

IV. Market Sentiment & Capital Flows
1. Market Sentiment:
- On May 22, the open interest in the PX main futures contract stood at 157,100 lots, up 4,339 lots day-on-day—indicating heightened trading activity.
- Traders show pronounced reluctance to sell, with quotations persistently tracking upward; however, downstream enterprises are exercising caution in purchasing at elevated levels, and enthusiasm for chasing higher prices remains subdued.

2. Capital Flows:
- On May 22, the PX main futures contract recorded net capital outflow of RMB 10.4 million; yet, abnormal position changes indicated that major participants increased their holdings by 7,597 lots.

V. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Outlook:
- Solid Cost Support: Elevated and volatile international crude oil prices, resilient naphtha prices, constrained supply, and low port inventories collectively support a stable-to-firm short-term price trend for PX.
- Demand-Side Caution Caps Upside: Downstream buyers remain cautious about purchasing at high levels, with limited willingness to chase rallies. Meanwhile, refineries’ improving profitability may lift operating loads, marginally easing current supply tightness—thus capping significant price gains.

2. Medium- to Long-Term Trend:
- Supply-Demand Balance Shifts from Tight to Loose: With multiple new PX units scheduled to come online domestically, PX capacity growth is expected to outpace demand growth. Imported PX will remain competitive, sustaining a dual-market dynamic where domestic and overseas supplies coexist and compete.
- Declining Profitability: PX profitability is projected to moderate, albeit remaining comparatively stronger than that of downstream PTA and PET segments within the full industrial chain.

3. Key Risk Factors:
- Geopolitical Risks: Recurrent tensions in the Middle East could disrupt international crude oil prices, thereby transmitting volatility to the PX market.
- Downstream PTA Capacity Expansion: Numerous new PTA plants are slated for commissioning; if actual demand fails to meet expectations, this could weigh on PX pricing.