1# Lead: Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends
- Latest Quotations: On May 26, 2026, the SMM 1# lead ingot price decreased by RMB 50/ton, with the online average price at RMB 16,475/ton; the Yangtze River Spot Market 1# lead recorded a low of RMB 16,675/ton, a high of RMB 16,775/ton, and an average of RMB 16,725/ton—up RMB 50/ton from the previous day; Shanghai-area 1# lead prices fluctuated within the range of RMB 16,225–16,275/ton.
- Futures Market: On May 26, 2026, the real-time LME lead futures price stood at RMB 16,745.00/ton, down RMB 10.00/ton (?0.06%) from the prior trading day.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Secondary lead smelters exhibited weak willingness to ship finished goods; some enterprises lowered their quotations by RMB 25–50/ton, with ex-factory prices trading at parity or slight premiums to the spot market.
- As of May 22, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lead inventory stood at 61,276 metric tons, down 3,069 tons from the previous trading day—reflecting ongoing supply tightness.
- Demand Side:
- Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers demonstrated subdued procurement intent, purchasing strictly on demand; overall market transaction activity remained modest.
- Penetration of lead-carbon batteries for new-energy vehicles is gradually increasing; however, near-term incremental demand remains limited and has not yet provided significant price support.

III. Regional Disparities
- Price Divergence:
- The Yangtze River Spot Market’s 1# lead average price (RMB 16,725/ton) was RMB 90/ton higher than Guangdong’s spot average (RMB 16,635/ton), indicating widening regional price spreads.
- Spot prices in inland cities such as Xi’an and Shenyang were comparatively lower—for example, Xi’an’s 1# lead average price on May 25 was RMB 16,475/ton—highlighting regional supply-demand imbalances.
- Market Activity:
- Coastal regions including Guangdong and Shanghai showed relatively active trading, whereas inland markets such as Xi’an and Shenyang experienced sluggish transaction volumes.

IV. Policy & Industry Developments
- Environmental Regulations: Ongoing ultra-low-emission retrofits at domestic lead smelters have increased unit electricity consumption, raising processing costs—yet compliance-driven operating rates remain high.
- Secondary Lead Recycling: The standardized recycling rate for spent lead-acid batteries reached 86.4%; however, high-purity recycled 1# lead output remains constrained by impurity separation technology bottlenecks, accounting for only 12.7% of total secondary lead production.
- International Markets: LME lead inventories are at a five-year low; if they fall further below 22,000 tons, foreign-market pricing power and its transmission effect on domestic prices may intensify.

Analysis & Outlook

I. Short-Term Drivers
- Supply Tightness: Continued SHFE inventory drawdowns and weak secondary lead shipment willingness underpin the price floor.
- Weak Demand: Cautious downstream procurement—largely on-demand—constrains upward price momentum.
- Cost Support: Rising smelting processing costs provide moderate price support.

II. Medium-Term Trends
- Supply-Demand Balance: Supply-side tightness persists due to falling inventories and subdued secondary lead shipments; demand-side growth driven by new-energy vehicle (NEV) lead-carbon batteries remains nascent, resulting in sustained supply-demand balancing.
- Price Volatility: Lead prices will likely remain range-bound in the near term, influenced by futures market sentiment, inventory fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythms. Medium-term price direction hinges critically on the pace of NEV battery demand realization.

Forecast

I. Price Range
- Short-Term: 1# lead spot prices are expected to oscillate between RMB 16,400–16,800/ton; futures prices may fluctuate around RMB 16,700/ton, subject to macro sentiment and inventory dynamics.
- Medium-Term: Should NEV battery demand exceed expectations, lead prices could break above RMB 17,000/ton; conversely, persistently weak demand may push prices down toward RMB 16,200/ton.

II. Key Variables
- Inventory Changes: SHFE and LME lead inventory levels serve as critical price barometers—sustained drawdowns may exert upward pressure on prices.
- Demand Realization: Growth velocity in NEV lead-carbon battery installation volume is the pivotal demand-side variable; an acceleration beyond consensus would bolster lead prices.
- Policy Impact: Enforcement intensity of environmental regulations and technological breakthroughs in secondary lead recycling may reshape supply structures—and thereby influence pricing.