I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Wheat Prices: From April 13–14, domestic Grade III common wheat prices ranged from RMB 1.29 to 1.31 per jin (RMB 2,580–2,620 per metric ton). In Shandong Province, prices stood at RMB 1.30–1.315 per jin; major mills—including Wudeli and Fada—posted purchase prices of RMB 2,605–2,615 per metric ton, implementing modest price increases. In Henan Province, prices were RMB 1.29–1.31 per jin (RMB 2,590–2,610 per metric ton in Zhengzhou and Luohe), with relatively low grain arrivals from the grassroots level. In Hebei Province, prices were stable to slightly stronger: RMB 2,590–2,610 per metric ton in Shijiazhuang and RMB 2,550–2,570 per metric ton in Hengshui. In Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei provinces, prices ranged from RMB 1.28–1.30 per jin. Premium wheat varieties—such as Xinmai 26 and Jinan 17—were priced at RMB 1.36–1.40 per jin; supplies remain scarce, resulting in a 'price exists but no market' situation.
- Flour Prices: As of June 2024, retail prices for ordinary medium-gluten wheat flour across China generally range between RMB 2.8 and 3.8 per jin. Bulk ordinary flour in northern production regions (e.g., Henan and Shandong) can be as low as RMB 2.6 per jin, while branded, premium packaged flour sold in first-tier city supermarkets typically ranges from RMB 3.5–3.8 per jin. Organically certified or high-gluten specialty flours command premiums exceeding RMB 4.5 per jin. Recently, flour prices have entered a phase of mixed gains and losses, trending overall toward stability. In early April, some enterprises implemented 'price-protection' strategies, boosting order volumes.
2. Trading Arrangements
- On April 15, multiple wheat bidding sessions are scheduled: From 10:00–11:00 AM, Zaozhuang Jinfeng Grain & Oil Purchasing & Sales Co., Ltd. and Rizhao Municipal Reserve Grain & Oil Management Co., Ltd. will conduct wheat bidding sales; untraded lots will be re-auctioned cyclically. Shanxi Huanglong Flour Industry Co., Ltd. will hold a wheat bidding procurement session. From 2:00–3:00 PM, Wudeli Group Suipian Flour Co., Ltd. and Wudeli Group Xinxiang Flour Co., Ltd. will conduct wheat bidding procurements. Additionally, at 8:30 AM on April 15, the National Grain and Strategic Reserves Administration’s Grain Trading Coordination Center—and its affiliated provincial grain trading centers—will jointly organize a minimum-support-price wheat bidding sale.
3. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side: Remaining grain stocks at the grassroots level stand below 10%, marking the formal onset of the 'green-to-yellow gap' period for 2025-crop common wheat supply. Traders have largely sold off their holdings at favorable prices, depleting inventories and reducing circulating grain supplies. Approximately 800,000 metric tons of policy-supported wheat are auctioned weekly; such auctions are expected to conclude by late April to make way for the new season’s wheat.
- Demand Side: Flour mills maintain rigid restocking demand. As flour sales gradually recover, wheat consumption rises; mills may moderately replenish stocks to meet processing needs and facilitate blending of old and new crops. However, flour consumption remains fundamentally constrained by the persistent pattern of 'no peak during peak season, even lower demand during off-season,' though low dealer inventories lay the groundwork for a rebound in trade activity. Regarding feed usage: With improved corn supply-demand balance projected for 2026 and tightening wheat supply-demand conditions, wheat feed usage is expected to decline significantly year-on-year—assuming normal corn production in North China.
4. Futures Market: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) Strong Wheat futures main contract WH2605 trades in a sideways range, with reference prices between RMB 2,590–2,610 per metric ton.

II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Price-Supporting Factors
- Policy Floor Support: The minimum support price of RMB 1.19 per jin provides robust floor support. Although the release of policy-supported wheat exerts some dampening effect on rapid price increases, it simultaneously stabilizes the market’s price bottom. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments implement a 'two-year fixed' mechanism to stabilize expectations among grain farmers and market participants. The minimum support purchase price is projected to remain unchanged through 2027–2028, offering long-term price support for wheat.
- Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Low grassroots inventories, rigid restocking demand from flour mills, and scarcity of premium wheat all exert upward pressure on wheat prices. Moreover, mills’ moderate restocking to satisfy processing requirements and blend old/new crops further supports steady price gains.
2. Price-Pressuring Factors
- Policy Auctions: Policy-supported wheat releases remain at elevated levels in April, continuing to dominate market supply. Such substantial auction volumes will constrain the upside potential of wheat prices.
- Consumption Constraints: Flour consumption is unlikely to break free from the entrenched 'no peak during peak season, even lower demand during off-season' pattern in the near term. Meanwhile, feed usage is expected to decline, limiting overall consumption growth—and thus imposing downward pressure on wheat price increases.
3. Flour Market Conditions: Flour enterprises continue intensifying promotional efforts; some have adopted 'price-protection' strategies, contributing to order recovery. Industry operating rates have edged up slightly, and market buying and selling activity has become more vibrant. Nevertheless, the fundamental structure of the flour market is unlikely to undergo radical transformation in the short term, and industry consolidation and differentiation will likely accelerate. By-product prices have halted their decline and rebounded, effectively alleviating operational pressures on flour mills. However, rising temperatures signal the onset of the off-season for meat and egg consumption; livestock and poultry inventories may undergo continued adjustments, potentially leading to downward pressure on by-product prices going forward.

III. Outlook
1. Wheat Prices: In the near term, wheat prices are expected to trend steadily higher—but face upper-bound resistance due to ongoing policy wheat auctions and limited consumption growth potential. The average market price for Grade I common wheat in major producing regions may fluctuate around RMB 2,500 per metric ton (RMB 1.25 per jin), with the price center likely experiencing mild upward adjustment compared to 2025 levels. Key watchpoints include auction transaction data for policy wheat, weather conditions during critical growth stages of the 2026 new-crop wheat, and corn price trends influencing feed-substitution demand for wheat.
2. Flour Prices: Flour sales volume is expected to rise modestly, easing downward pricing pressure. However, intensifying competition and accelerating industry segmentation may lead to divergent price trajectories across brands and quality tiers: premium flour prices may remain firm, supported by scarce raw materials and growing consumer demand, whereas general-purpose flour prices may stay relatively stable—or exhibit only minor fluctuations—amid overcapacity.