Cyclohexanone Market Dynamics Report – Recent Commodity Market Intelligence

Price Trends
- Domestic Market: As of May 25, 2026, the national average price for cyclohexanone stood at RMB 9,858 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the East China region, the reference price ranged between RMB 9,850–9,950 per metric ton, reflecting a weak but stable consolidation phase.
- Recent Trend: Since early May 2026, cyclohexanone prices have exhibited limited volatility. The reference price was RMB 9,750/ton on May 1, declined to RMB 9,550/ton on May 11 (a decrease of 2.05%), and subsequently rebounded to stabilize at RMB 9,858/ton by May 25.

Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side: Domestic cyclohexanone capacity continues to expand, albeit at a decelerating pace. Producers are increasingly prioritizing improvements in capacity utilization rates. Leading enterprises are reinforcing their market positions through scale advantages and technological capabilities, whereas small- and medium-sized enterprises face mounting pressure from rising production costs and stringent environmental regulations—constraining their capacity ramp-up. Overall output is expected to increase modestly alongside capacity adjustments; however, the fundamental imbalance of oversupply remains unresolved.
- Demand Side: Traditional downstream sectors show sluggish demand growth. Demand from pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals remains largely stable at baseline levels. Emerging applications—such as in new-energy materials—hold potential for marginal improvement in cyclohexanone consumption; yet such demand is unlikely to materialize at scale in the near term. Consequently, overall demand recovery remains slow, and supply-demand dynamics continue to reflect ongoing negotiation, with persistent overcapacity pressure.

Import-Export Situation
- Exports: From January to November 2024, cyclohexanone exports totaled 74,300 metric tons, representing an 18.9% year-on-year increase. In 2026, exports are projected to rise modestly. Global demand for chemical products remains fragmented; developing countries’ industrial upgrading initiatives present latent demand for cyclohexanone. However, export growth will likely remain constrained by trade policy shifts and freight cost volatility.
- Imports: Cyclohexanone imports are anticipated to continue increasing in 2026. High-quality overseas production capacity may fill domestic gaps in premium segments—e.g., high-purity or specialty-grade cyclohexanone—introducing differentiated competition and prompting domestic producers to accelerate technological upgrades.

Cost Structure
- Benzene Prices: As the primary raw material for cyclohexanone, benzene pricing significantly influences cyclohexanone’s cost base. Recently, benzene prices have been relatively soft, offering limited cost support. Should benzene prices stage a short-term rebound—triggered by refinery operational adjustments or fluctuations in international crude oil prices—this would provide upward support for cyclohexanone pricing.

Market Analysis & Outlook

Current Market Conditions
- The cyclohexanone market currently reflects an equilibrium of supply-demand negotiation: continued capacity expansion on the supply side juxtaposed against sluggish demand recovery, resulting in subdued price movement and an overall weak-but-stable consolidation pattern.
- With benzene prices trending downward, cost support for cyclohexanone remains limited. However, any benzene price rebound would contribute positively to cyclohexanone pricing.

Key Influencing Factors
- Supply-Demand Balance: Oversupply and slow demand recovery constitute the principal challenges facing the cyclohexanone market today. This structural imbalance is unlikely to change significantly in the near term.
- Cost Structure: Benzene price trends remain critically important for cyclohexanone’s cost support; close monitoring of benzene market developments is therefore essential.
- Import-Export Dynamics: International trade flows exert measurable influence on domestic cyclohexanone supply-demand equilibrium. Trade policies, freight cost fluctuations, and other external factors warrant ongoing attention.

Forecast

Price Outlook
- In the short term, cyclohexanone prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range centered on cost fundamentals and marginal supply-demand shifts—without exhibiting clear unidirectional trends. Prices are likely to oscillate primarily between RMB 6,000–7,500 per metric ton. Under extraordinary circumstances—e.g., widespread plant maintenance shutdowns or sharp spikes/drops in raw material prices—prices may temporarily breach this range, though such deviations are not expected to persist.

Supply-Demand Outlook
- Domestic cyclohexanone capacity is projected to grow further in 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Output is expected to rise moderately in line with capacity adjustments. Meanwhile, demand recovery remains gradual, and emerging application areas are unlikely to generate substantial incremental demand in the immediate future. Hence, supply-demand negotiations are expected to continue.

Import-Export Outlook
- Export volumes are forecast to rise slightly in 2026, though growth will remain limited due to uncertainties surrounding international trade policies and shipping cost volatility. On the import side, high-quality overseas supply is expected to progressively enter the Chinese market to satisfy niche demand for high-purity or specialty grades—leading to continued growth in import volumes.