Light Potassium Carbonate Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
| Date | Lowest Quotation (CNY/ton) | Highest Quotation (CNY/ton) | Mainstream Quotation Range (CNY/ton) | Average Quotation (CNY/ton) |
|------------|---------------------------|----------------------------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------|
| 2026-05-20 | 6,990 | 7,900 | 7,500–7,800 | 7,650 |
| 2026-05-21 | 7,200 | 8,300 | 7,500–7,900 | 7,700 |
| 2026-05-25 | 7,400 | 7,800 | 7,400–7,700 | 7,550 |
| 2026-05-26 | 7,400 | 7,400 | 7,400 | 7,400 |

Price Volatility Characteristics:
1. Prices rose from May 20 to 21, with the highest quotation exceeding CNY 8,300/ton (quoted by Pingxiang Lixin Biochemical High-Tech Co., Ltd. in Nanchang), primarily driven by regional supply tightness.
2. Prices declined from May 25 to 26, settling within the CNY 7,400–7,700/ton range; mainstream suppliers—including Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd.—stabilized quotations at CNY 7,400/ton.
3. Significant regional price differentials: Taiyuan market quoted at CNY 7,800/ton; Nanchang at CNY 8,300/ton; and Jinan at CNY 7,400–7,700/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Structure Analysis
Supply Side
1. Production Capacity Distribution:
– Domestic Leader: Zhejiang Ocean Biotech (85,000 tons/year light potassium carbonate capacity), accounting for 9.17% of global capacity.
– Other Key Suppliers: Shanxi Wentong, Hubei Qiba Jiu Chemical, Jinan Jinrihe Chemical, etc., with combined annual capacity of ~150,000 tons.
2. Operating Rates:
– In 2025, China’s potassium carbonate industry operating rate stood at ~75.8% (output: 204,600 tons / capacity: 270,000 tons); light potassium carbonate accounted for over 60% of total output.
– Driven by rising demand, industry operating rates increased to over 80% in Q1 2026.

Demand Side
1. Downstream Application Share:
– Pesticides (23.8%), glass/ceramics (13.9%), pharmaceuticals (13.9%), and food (8.4%) are the primary consumption sectors.
– Demand for light potassium carbonate in pesticides (herbicides, fungicides) and pharmaceuticals (API synthesis) is growing at an annual rate of 12%–15%.
2. Demand Drivers:
– Pesticide Industry: Global food security policies have boosted pesticide exports; China’s pesticide exports grew by 8.3% YoY in 2024.
– Pharmaceutical Industry: Accelerated innovation drug R&D is increasing demand for high-purity light potassium carbonate.
– Food Industry: Rising demand for health-oriented food additives—e.g., low-sodium salt and leavening agents.

III. Key Market Events
1. Industry Consolidation Expectations:
– Zhenxing Fertilizer, China’s second-largest light potassium carbonate producer, faces debt distress and may be acquired by a leading enterprise, further elevating industry concentration.
2. Geopolitical Impact:
– Huibao (USA), the world’s second-largest amprolium hydrochloride supplier, has experienced operational disruptions at its Israeli facility due to Middle East conflict, indirectly boosting export demand for domestic potassium carbonate.
3. Capacity Expansion Plans:
– Zhejiang Ocean Biotech’s Shandong base expansion project (adding 50,000 tons/year capacity) is scheduled to commence operations in 2027, potentially alleviating long-term supply pressure.

IV. Price Driver Analysis
| Factor | Impact Direction | Intensity | Basis |
|--------------|------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------|
| Raw Material Cost | ↑ | Medium | Potassium chloride prices rose 5.2% YoY, increasing potassium carbonate production costs |
| Supply-Demand Balance | ↑ | High | Pesticide sector demand grew 12% YoY; no major new capacity expansions planned except Ocean Biotech’s 2027 project |
| Regional Logistics Cost | ↑ | Low | Logistics cost from Taiyuan to Jinan increased by 8%–10%, widening regional price spreads |
| Export Demand | ↑ | Medium | Potassium carbonate exports surged 39.37% YoY in 2024, with sustained growth in overseas orders |

V. Future Trend Outlook
1. Short Term (1–3 months):
– Price Range: CNY 7,400–7,800/ton; regional supply-demand imbalances may sustain elevated pricing in Taiyuan and Nanchang markets.
– Risk Factor: If Zhenxing Fertilizer accelerates inventory liquidation, prices could dip to CNY 7,200/ton.

2. Medium Term (6–12 months):
– Price Center: CNY 7,600–8,000/ton, supported by peak-season pesticide demand (Q3).
– Industry Consolidation: Acquisition of Zhenxing Fertilizer would strengthen pricing power of industry leaders and reduce price volatility.

3. Long Term (1–3 years):
– Price Trend: Initial upward movement followed by stabilization; post-2027 commissioning of Ocean Biotech’s Shandong base may push prices down to CNY 7,200–7,500/ton.
– Demand Structure Shift: The share of pharmaceutical and food applications is projected to rise to 35%, driving premium pricing (5%–8%) for ultra-high-purity products (≥99.5%).

Operational Recommendations:
– Downstream Users: Consider staggered procurement within the CNY 7,400–7,500/ton range to hedge against Q3 seasonal price risks.
– Traders: Monitor arbitrage opportunities between Taiyuan and Jinan markets; optimizing logistics can improve margins by 2%–3%.
– Investors: Closely track Ocean Biotech (Stock Code: 001212.SZ) capacity expansion progress and industry consolidation developments.