Liquid Ammonia Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
- May 21: Liquid ammonia price stood at RMB 2,316.67/ton, up 2.21% from the previous day—marking the end of a multi-day consecutive decline.
- May 15: Price fell to RMB 2,246.67/ton, representing an 18.5% cumulative decline from RMB 2,756.67/ton on May 1—the lowest level in recent weeks.
- May 1–May 27: Overall, liquid ammonia prices exhibited a pattern of sharp initial decline followed by a modest rebound; the trough occurred on May 15, while the peak was recorded on May 1 at RMB 2,756.67/ton.

II. Market Dynamics Analysis
1. Supply-Side Factors
- Increased Capacity Utilization: Industry average plant utilization rate was 78.6% in 2025 and is projected to rise to 81.2% in 2026, reflecting enhanced supply capacity.
- Regional Concentration: Five provinces—Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia—accounted for 63.5% of national output, with Shandong Province leading at 19.9%.
- Export Impact: Guangxi Province achieved its first full-ship export of liquid ammonia to South Asia (23,000 tons), signaling domestic producers’ proactive efforts to tap overseas markets amid oversupply conditions.

2. Demand-Side Factors
- Agricultural Demand: Earlier-than-usual spring fertilizer preparation season, coupled with compound fertilizer manufacturers’ growing preference for high-concentration nitrogen sources, has raised the direct-supply ratio of liquid ammonia—from 19.3% in 2025 to 21.1% in 2026—lifting per-ton value-added by approximately 4.2%.
- Industrial Demand: Accelerated domestic substitution in the nylon 66 supply chain is driving demand growth; after reaching full capacity, Henan Shenma Group’s annual 200,000-ton adiponitrile project will generate an additional ~220,000 tons of liquid ammonia demand annually.
- Emerging Applications: Liquid ammonia as a hydrogen carrier has entered the stage of large-scale pilot verification; in 2026, five pilot-scale (≥1,000-ton/year) ammonia-to-hydrogen demonstration facilities are expected to come online, contributing ~430,000 tons of incremental demand—representing 38.5% of the year’s total apparent consumption growth.

3. Cost-Side Factors
- Coal Price Volatility: Taking Jincheng bituminous coal (Shanxi Province) as the benchmark, every RMB 100/ton increase in coal price raises the full production cost of liquid ammonia by ~RMB 112/ton. However, long-term coal supply contracts now cover over 65% of mainstream producers’ coal requirements, rendering cost pass-through pressure manageable.
- Environmental Production Restrictions: The off-peak production ratio for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding \"2+26\" cities has been reduced to 15% during the non-heating season in 2026—down 5 percentage points year-on-year—alleviating supply-side constraints.

III. Price Drivers
1. Reasons for Short-Term Rebound
- Oversold Correction: Following the May 15 low of RMB 2,246.67/ton, technical rebound demand emerged in the market.
- Marginal Demand Improvement: Rising direct-supply ratios in agriculture and positive industrial demand outlook provided supportive fundamentals.
- Cost Support: Stable coal prices and high long-term contract coverage mitigated cost volatility impacts.

2. Reasons for Prior Decline
- Supply Surplus: Higher capacity utilization, combined with limited export growth, led to supply-demand imbalance.
- Crude Oil Drag: On May 21, WTI crude oil declined 8.82% and Brent crude dropped 5.63%, exerting downward pressure on energy-related commodities including liquid ammonia.
- Seasonality: May traditionally represents a low-demand period for agricultural applications, as the peak spring fertilizer preparation season had not yet fully materialized.

IV. Outlook
1. Price Trend Forecast
- Short Term (1–2 weeks): Liquid ammonia prices are expected to trade within RMB 2,300–2,400/ton, with upside potential constrained by persistent oversupply.
- Medium Term (1–3 months): As the agricultural fertilizer preparation peak approaches and industrial demand gains traction, prices are likely to gradually recover to RMB 2,500–2,600/ton.
- Long Term (6–12 months): Scaling-up of liquid ammonia use in hydrogen carrier applications and expansion of the nylon 66 industrial chain will sustain robust demand growth, potentially shifting the price equilibrium upward to RMB 2,700–2,800/ton.

2. Key Risk Factors
- Coal Prices: A sharp rise in coal prices could erode cost advantages.
- Environmental Policy: Any tightening of off-peak production mandates may trigger abrupt supply contraction and short-term price spikes.
- Export Policy: Shrinking overseas demand or increased trade barriers could exacerbate domestic oversupply.