1,1-Dichloroethylene Market Intelligence Report (May 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Current Prices
– As of May 25, 2026, the mainstream market quotation for 1,1-dichloroethylene (purity ≥99%) stands at RMB 20,000 per metric ton. Quotations for lower-purity products (≥99%—note: likely a typographical inconsistency; context implies 60%). Since December 2025, producers have maintained stable operating rates with no supply disruptions caused by environmental curtailments or scheduled maintenance.
– Stricter environmental regulations are accelerating the exit of small- and medium-sized producers; an estimated 4–5 such facilities are expected to be phased out in 2026, further elevating industry concentration.

2. Demand Side
– Traditional Applications: The PVDC (polyvinylidene chloride) market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0%–5.8%. Emerging sectors—including new energy and pharmaceuticals—are generating the majority of incremental demand. PVDC retains a superior comprehensive cost-effectiveness ratio (1.38) versus competing materials (e.g., EVOH) in high-end packaging, supporting structurally robust demand growth.
– Competitive Substitution Pressure: While EVOH and other alternatives are gaining traction in general-purpose packaging, PVDC’s irreplaceability in high-performance applications underpins sustained demand for 1,1-dichloroethylene.

III. Cost Drivers
1. Raw Material Costs
– Upstream chlorine and caustic soda prices remain stable; however, “dual-carbon” (carbon peak & carbon neutrality) policies have elevated carbon emission costs. Implementation of the 2026 “Key Controlled New Pollutants List” will increase annual compliance investment by approximately RMB 18 million per 100,000-ton production facility.

2. Policy Impact
– The “Action Plan for New Pollutant Governance” and the “Petrochemical & Chemical Industry Carbon Peak Implementation Plan” mandate that newly constructed projects achieve unit energy consumption ≤0.85 tons of standard coal per ton of product and incorporate chlorine resource recycling systems—further constraining the viability of small- and medium-sized producers.

IV. Competitive Landscape
1. Advantages of Leading Enterprises
– Juhua Group holds the largest market share (21.8%), leveraging its fully integrated chlor-alkali → vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) → 1,1-dichloroethylene value chain and consistent output from its multi-ten-thousand-ton-scale production capacity.
– Dow (DuPont) maintains a 15.6% share in the high-end electronic chemical solvents segment, capitalizing on global technical standards and localized Chinese manufacturing synergies.
– Asahi Kasei achieves an 11.7% price premium over the industry average through deep downstream integration with PVDC resin customers—demonstrating strong technology-driven pricing power.

2. Regional Differentiation
– Shandong Xinglu Chemical and Jiangsu Huatiewei Chemical have secured solid footholds in industrial solvent markets across East and North China via cost leadership and regional channel penetration strategies.

V. Analytical Assessment
1. Upward Shift in Price Midpoint
– Rising carbon emission costs and escalating environmental compliance expenditures constitute the core price drivers. The price midpoint is expected to gradually rise to RMB 22,000–25,000/ton.

2. Increasing Industry Concentration
– Environmental regulation is expediting the exit of inefficient capacity, while leading enterprises reinforce competitive moats through technological upgrades and green manufacturing certifications.

3. Structurally Divergent Demand Growth
– PVDC’s irreplaceability in high-end packaging sustains baseline demand; however, substitution pressure from EVOH and others in conventional packaging segments leads to bifurcated demand growth patterns.

VI. Forward Outlook
1. Short Term (Second Half of 2026)
– Prices are expected to remain near RMB 20,000/ton, with volatility confined within ±5%. Post-Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream users may cause brief upward pressure—but stable chlorine prices and ample inventories will cap any significant upside.

2. Medium Term (2027–2028)
– Expansion of the PVDC market and tightening environmental policy will sustain demand growth and push the price midpoint higher. Leading enterprises will broaden their market share by launching technologically advanced offerings—e.g., electronics-grade and pharmaceutical-grade 1,1-dichloroethylene.

3. Long Term (2029–2030)
– The industry will transition into a green manufacturing and high-end specialization phase. Competitive advantage will hinge on technological innovation capability, green manufacturing credentials, and depth of downstream integration. New entrants are advised to focus on high-value niche applications or adopt technology partnership models for targeted market entry.