Chloroform Market Dynamics Intelligence

I. Price Trends
- Recent Price Stability: As of May 27, 2026, the chloroform market price has remained stable at RMB 2,800 per ton for multiple consecutive days, unchanged from early May with no significant fluctuations.
- Historical Price Review: In 2025, chloroform prices exhibited a volatile downward trend, hitting an annual low of RMB 1,533 per ton; prices rebounded modestly to approximately RMB 1,966 per ton by year-end, driven by tightened supply and increased demand. Prices remained stable in early 2026 without substantial upward or downward movements.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Persistent Overcapacity: Methane chlorides capacity increased slightly in 2025; output in 2026 is projected at 1.05–1.10 million tons, with operating rates at 70–75%, maintaining an ample supply landscape.
- Stable Plant Operations: Major producers’ facilities have operated normally recently, with no large-scale maintenance shutdowns or unplanned outages; spot inventories remain at healthy levels.
- Demand Side:
- Weak Domestic Demand: Downstream sectors—including pharmaceuticals, refrigerants, and cleaning agents—procure on a just-in-time basis; terminal plant utilization rates show no notable improvement, resulting in limited support from fundamental demand.
- Growing Export Demand: In April 2026, chloroform exports reached 160.597 metric tons, up 257.11% month-on-month, indicating robust external demand that partially offsets domestic demand weakness.

III. Cost Structure and Profitability
- Elevated Raw Material Costs: As of May 26, methanol spot prices stood at RMB 3,178 per ton—down 3.57% from early May but still at elevated levels—providing strong cost support for chloroform.
- Squeezed Profit Margins: Amid abundant supply and sluggish demand, chloroform prices struggle to rise, while persistently high raw material costs further compress manufacturers’ profit margins.

IV. Market Sentiment and Outlook
- Short-Term Stability: Market participants generally expect little sustained upward momentum in chloroform prices over the near term; overall market sentiment favors stability, with no clear directional trend anticipated.
- Medium-to-Long-Term Pressure: The chloroform market is expected to remain under pressure throughout 2026, with limited potential for substantial price increases; the likely trading range is forecast at RMB 1,800–2,300 per ton.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Reasons for Current Price Stability
- Balanced Supply-Demand: Stable operations across supply-side facilities and healthy inventory levels, coupled with resilient export demand partially offsetting weak domestic consumption, have maintained overall equilibrium.
- Cost Floor Support: High methanol and other raw material prices provide a rigid floor, preventing sharp price declines.

II. Key Risks Ahead
- Underwhelming Demand Recovery: Should downstream industries continue operating at low utilization rates—or if export growth decelerates—supply-demand imbalance may worsen, exerting further downward pressure on prices.
- Raw Material Price Volatility: Methanol prices are subject to international markets and energy price fluctuations; a sharp decline could weaken cost support and trigger correlated price adjustments in chloroform.

Forecast

I. Short-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
- Price Trend: Chloroform prices are expected to remain stable with limited volatility, trading within a narrow band of RMB 2,700–2,900 per ton.
- Strategic Recommendation: Enterprises are advised to adopt a “just-in-time procurement” approach, avoiding large-scale stockpiling; close monitoring of raw material price trends and downstream demand dynamics is recommended to enable timely production plan adjustments.

II. Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast (6–12 Months)
- Price Trend: Chloroform prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the second half of 2026, with no visible catalyst for a sustained upward trend. Absent meaningful demand improvement, prices may gradually decline toward cost-support levels.
- Emerging Opportunities: Attention should be directed toward growth areas in fine chemical applications—such as fluorinated polymers and fourth-generation advanced refrigerants—as potential new drivers of chloroform demand.