Market Intelligence Report on Coal Tar – Recent Dynamics

I. Price Trends

1. National Mainstream Prices:
- As of May 22, 2026, the national average price for high-temperature coal tar stood at RMB 3,715 per metric ton, up 0.34% from the previous day.
- From May 14 to May 22, prices exhibited volatile upward movement; notably, on May 15, prices declined by 2.63% to RMB 3,651.25/ton before gradually recovering.

2. Regional Price Disparities:
- Regional price variations exist due to differing supply-demand dynamics—e.g., in Hebei, Shanxi, and East China regions.
- Recently, auction prices for coal tar in certain areas—including Shandong and Shanxi—have been adjusted upward.

II. Supply-Demand Situation

1. Supply Side:
- Coking plant operating rates remain at medium-to-high levels, ensuring stable output of high-temperature coal tar and ample market supply.
- Heightened safety scrutiny in Shanxi has led to reduced coking coal production; however, its overall impact on coal tar supply remains limited.
- Coke producers’ inventories are gradually accumulating; some enterprises are proactively offering discounts to alleviate inventory pressure.

2. Demand Side:
- Downstream deep-processing industries operate at low capacity utilization, resulting in weakened demand for coal tar.
- The carbon black industry faces insufficient terminal orders from the tire sector, leading to persistently low operating rates and correspondingly shrinking procurement demand for coal tar.
- Prices of downstream products—including coal tar pitch and industrial naphthalene—continue declining, narrowing profit margins and dampening purchasing enthusiasm.

III. Market Sentiment and Trading Atmosphere

1. Market Sentiment:
- Downstream enterprises generally hold a bearish outlook on future prices and adopt cautious, price-pressuring procurement strategies.
- Traders demonstrate strong willingness to offload inventory; the market lacks bullish sentiment.
- Some producers show limited willingness to maintain pricing and instead offer concessions to expedite sales.

2. Trading Atmosphere:
- Overall trading activity is subdued, with pronounced wait-and-see sentiment.
- Cross-regional cargo flows remain active, intensifying regional competition.

IV. Related Influencing Factors

1. Coke Market:
- Coke prices rose month-on-month, supporting coke producers’ profitability—but exerting minimal influence on their willingness to support coal tar pricing.
- Coking plant operating rates fluctuate in response to coke price movements and profit conditions.

2. Policies and Environmental Regulations:
- Increasingly stringent environmental regulations impose certain constraints on coking plant operations.
- Policies governing coking capacity allocation affect market expectations regarding future coal tar supply.

3. International Markets:
- Fluctuations in international crude oil prices exert a certain degree of influence on the coal tar market.
- Geopolitical factors have triggered global chemical supply constraints, indirectly supporting coal tar prices.

Analysis and Outlook

1. Short-Term Trend:
- The coal tar market is expected to continue experiencing weak, range-bound fluctuations—with slight downward pressure in the near term.
- On the supply side, high operating rates and abundant output persist; on the demand side, sluggish operation of deep-processing and carbon black sectors sustains a dual-weak supply-demand structure, weighing on prices.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Trend:
- As spring maintenance shutdowns across deep-processing industries conclude and facilities gradually resume operations, operating rates may rise modestly—though the supportive effect on coal tar demand will be limited.
- Persistent softness in downstream product demand—particularly for coal tar pitch and industrial naphthalene—coupled with insufficient terminal orders, continues to constrain profitability recovery.
- For the full year, the estimated supply-demand gap stands at approximately 850,000 metric tons, indicating a fundamental supply-deficit scenario; however, short-term bearish factors dominate the current market.

Forecast

1. Price Forecast:
- Domestic high-temperature coal tar prices are projected to decline further by RMB 50–150 per metric ton in May, trading within a range of RMB 3,300–4,000/ton.
- Longer term, prices may gradually stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals adjust and downstream industries recover.

2. Market Opportunities and Risks:
- Monitor progress in coke producers’ inventory digestion and marginal changes in deep-processing plant operating rates to identify potential opportunistic procurement windows.
- Remain vigilant against risks stemming from international market volatility, policy adjustments, and environmental production curbs.