Ammonium Nitrate Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence

Price Information
- Stable Recent Prices: Since May 2026, ammonium nitrate prices have remained relatively stable. From May 1 to May 15, the reference price held steady at RMB 4,340.00 per ton, with no significant fluctuations observed.
- Regional Price Variation: The national average benchmark price across major markets stood at RMB 2,387.50 per ton during the period from April 22 to April 30, 2026; however, actual prices may vary by region, brand, and distribution channel.

Supply-Demand Situation
- Stable Supply: Domestic ammonium nitrate production facilities are operating steadily, ensuring normal supply. As outdated production capacity is gradually phased out, industry capacity utilization has improved—yet overall capacity remains in surplus.
- Divergent Demand: Ammonium nitrate demand is primarily concentrated in the civilian explosives sector and the agricultural compound fertilizer sector. The civilian explosives industry is entering its peak season, leading to increased ammonium nitrate demand; meanwhile, demand from the agricultural compound fertilizer sector exhibits seasonal patterns, with higher usage volumes expected in autumn.

Import-Export Situation
- Declining Export Volumes: In recent years, both the volume and value of China’s ammonium nitrate exports have shown a downward trend. In 2022, China exported 27,900 tons of ammonium nitrate—a 59.61% year-on-year decline—and export value amounted to USD 15 million, down 43.07% year-on-year.
- Concentrated Export Destinations: China’s ammonium nitrate exports are primarily directed to Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, where demand for Chinese ammonium nitrate remains relatively stable.

Industry Developments
- Policy Regulation: Government oversight of the ammonium nitrate industry has intensified, with increasingly stringent environmental protection and safety requirements. Consequently, outdated production capacity failing to meet environmental or safety standards has been forcibly withdrawn, facilitating structural optimization of the industry.
- Technological Advancement: Production technologies continue to evolve, with advanced methods—including pressurized neutralization and high-tower granulation—gaining wider adoption. These technologies offer advantages such as compact equipment footprint, high production capacity, and low energy consumption, thereby helping reduce production costs and improve product quality.

II. Analysis and Assessment

Price Trend
- Short-Term Stability: In the near term, ammonium nitrate prices are expected to remain stable, supported by balanced supply conditions and divergent demand dynamics. Increased demand from the peak season in the civilian explosives sector and rising autumn usage in the compound fertilizer sector will provide modest price support.
- Long-Term Volatility: Over the longer term, ammonium nitrate prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors, including changes in upstream raw material prices, shifts in downstream demand, and the intensity of policy regulation.

Supply-Demand Relationship
- Capacity Surplus: Although the phasing out of outdated capacity has improved industry capacity utilization, overall production capacity remains excessive—potentially intensifying market competition and constraining substantial price increases.
- Demand Growth: Ongoing national infrastructure development and rising energy demand are expected to sustain steady growth in ammonium nitrate demand from the civilian explosives sector. Simultaneously, agricultural development will continue to support demand from the compound fertilizer sector.

Policy Impact
- Environmental Policies: Tightening environmental regulations will raise requirements for enterprises’ environmental investment. This may prompt non-compliant producers to exit the market, further optimizing industrial structure.
- Safety Regulations: Enhanced safety regulations will elevate safety standards across production, storage, and transportation of ammonium nitrate. While this helps mitigate safety risks, it may also increase operational costs for enterprises.

III. Forecast

Price Forecast
- Short-Term Outlook: Ammonium nitrate prices are projected to remain stable in the near term, with limited volatility.
- Long-Term Outlook: Over the longer term, ammonium nitrate prices may experience fluctuations driven by various factors. However, given the equilibrium between persistent capacity surplus and steady demand growth, significant upward or downward price movements are unlikely.

Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply Outlook: With continued withdrawal of outdated capacity and broader application of advanced technologies, the quality of ammonium nitrate supply is expected to improve. Nevertheless, overall capacity surplus will persist, sustaining intense market competition.
- Demand Outlook: Demand for ammonium nitrate from both the civilian explosives and agricultural compound fertilizer sectors is anticipated to grow steadily, providing solid underlying support to the market.

Industry Trend Forecast
- Industrial Structure Optimization: Strengthened policy regulation and intensified market competition will further optimize the ammonium nitrate industry’s structure. Outdated capacity will continue to phase out, enabling leading enterprises to expand their market share.
- Technology-Driven Development: Technological innovation will serve as a key driver of industry advancement. Widespread adoption of advanced technologies will enhance production efficiency, reduce costs, and improve product quality.