Silicon Sodium Market Dynamics Report (Recent Commodity Market Intelligence)

I. Price Trends
1. Methyl Sodium Silicate
- On April 20, 2026, the quotation for domestically produced methyl sodium silicate (solid content ≥30%) in the East China region stood at RMB 3,700 per metric ton, down RMB 800 per metric ton from the previous day—reaching the lowest level in the past three months.
- On April 25, 2026, Shandong Aokai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 4,500 per metric ton (30–40% concentration, delivery location: Alxa League, Inner Mongolia), indicating widening regional price differentials.
- On May 24, 2026, Shandong Century Xinwang New Materials Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 4,300 per metric ton (solid content ≥30%, ex-factory price, Shandong Province).
- On May 22, 2026, Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 3,600 per metric ton (30% concentration, market price, Hubei Province), reflecting lower pricing in Hubei compared to Shandong.

2. Sodium Metasilicate Pentahydrate
- On May 26, 2026, Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 1,600 per metric ton (99% purity, Hubei Province).
- On May 26, 2026, Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 1,600 per metric ton (99% industrial grade, Shandong Province/Jinan City).
- On May 26, 2026, Shanghai Shijian Industrial Co., Ltd. (Shijian Chemical) quoted RMB 1,880 per metric ton (Shanghai Municipality).
- On May 26, 2026, Guangzhou Tianyue Chemical Co., Ltd. (Yueda brand) quoted RMB 1,300 per metric ton (Guangdong Province/Guangzhou City), indicating relatively low pricing in Guangdong.

3. Ordinary Sodium Silicate
- From May 19 to May 5, 2026, manufacturer quotations for ordinary sodium silicate remained stable at RMB 750 per metric ton; however, the quotation on April 19 reached RMB 1,450 per metric ton, revealing significant price volatility.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Slowing Capacity Expansion: Capacity growth in the methyl sodium silicate segment is limited, primarily constrained by environmental protection policies.
- Easing Inventory Pressure: Enterprise inventory turnover rate in February 2026 improved by 15% year-on-year compared to February 2025, indicating reduced supply-side pressure.
- High Technical Barriers: Only three companies—Jiangsu Chenguang Chemical, Zhejiang Huangma Technology, and Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon—possess continuous, stable mass-production capacity exceeding 1,000 metric tons annually in the methyl sodium silicate sector, with a CR3 (top-three market share) concentration of 68.3%.

2. Demand Side
- Stable Demand from Construction Waterproofing: As a core raw material for waterproofing agents, methyl sodium silicate benefits from infrastructure investment growth, accounting for approximately 45% of total demand. In 2026, over 3 million new affordable housing units are scheduled for commencement nationwide, alongside urban renewal initiatives, collectively driving incremental demand of ~72,000 metric tons.
- Weak Demand from Coating Industry: Due to real estate regulatory tightening, demand for methyl sodium silicate used in coatings declined by 8% year-on-year.
- Export Market Recovery: Export volume increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, mainly targeting Southeast Asian markets; export value reached RMB 380 million in 2025, up 19.6% year-on-year. Exports are projected to contribute 9.2% to total demand in 2026.

III. Cost and Profitability Analysis
1. Raw Material Costs
- Fluctuating Sodium Silicate Prices: The average price of liquid sodium silicate in 2025 was approximately RMB 800 per metric ton—a 5% decline from 2024—but prices of critical raw materials such as methyl chlorosilane have become increasingly volatile due to international oil price fluctuations.
- Rising Energy Costs: Natural gas prices rose 10% year-on-year in January 2026, increasing production costs by approximately 3%.

2. Industry Profitability
- Declining Gross Margins: The industry’s average gross margin in 2025 stood at ~18%, down 4 percentage points from 2024, primarily driven by intensified price competition.
- Competitive Advantage of Leading Enterprises: Companies such as Xinyida Chemical maintain gross margins above 22% through economies of scale, whereas small- and medium-sized manufacturers achieve gross margins below 15%.

IV. Analysis, Outlook, and Forecast
1. Price Trend
- Short-Term Stabilization: The average price of methyl sodium silicate in February 2026 (RMB 3,750 per metric ton) has approached the cost floor; near-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within RMB 3,700–3,900 per metric ton.
- Medium-Term Rebound: Should infrastructure investment accelerate, prices may rebound to RMB 4,000–4,200 per metric ton by end-Q2 2026.
- Stable Pricing for Sodium Metasilicate Pentahydrate: Prices for sodium metasilicate pentahydrate are expected to remain stable in the short term; inter-regional price differentials may persist due to logistics and other factors.

2. Supply-Demand Evolution
- Supply Side: Capacity utilization among leading enterprises is projected to rise to 85%, while small- and medium-sized manufacturers will likely maintain operating rates between 60% and 70%.
- Demand Side: Steady growth in construction waterproofing demand, continued export recovery, and sluggish coating-sector demand.

3. Risk Factors
- Raw Material Price Volatility: If international oil prices exceed USD 90 per barrel, methyl sodium silicate production costs could increase by 5–8%.
- Trading Opportunities: Regional price arbitrage opportunities exist but remain limited—for example, logistics costs from Shandong to Hubei amount to approximately RMB 200 per metric ton, constraining viable profit margins.