Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Calcium Oxide (Quicklime)

I. Market Intelligence

Price Information
- According to Shengyishe (Business Society) data, the benchmark price of calcium oxide (quicklime) was RMB 690.00 per metric ton during May 25–26, 2026—unchanged from the beginning of the month. Over the annual period from May 26, 2025, to May 26, 2026, the daily price remained at the lower end of its range: minimum value = RMB 690.00/ton; maximum value = RMB 720.00/ton; median = RMB 705.00/ton; average = RMB 700.59–700.66/ton.

Industry Scale and Output
- In 2024, the calcium oxide industry’s market size was approximately RMB 11.294 billion, with output value totaling ~RMB 11.3246 billion. Production volume reached ~319.956 million metric tons, while demand stood at ~269.859 million metric tons.
- In 2025, the number of designated large-scale enterprises in the industry declined to 1,847—down by 83 year-on-year—but the top ten enterprises collectively produced 86.5 million metric tons, raising the industry’s CR10 (concentration ratio of top 10 firms) from 26.7% in 2024 to 29.1% in 2025.
- For 2026, the industry’s market size is projected to reach RMB 13.26 billion, representing a 3.2% year-on-year growth; production is forecasted at 305 million metric tons, with capacity utilization expected to rise to 87.5%.

Policy Developments
- In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), jointly with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), issued the \"Special Action Plan for Green Manufacturing of Inorganic Non-Metallic Materials (2025–2027)\". The plan explicitly designates quicklime as a foundational functional material requiring guaranteed supply, mandating completion of ultra-low-emission retrofits for over 85% of vertical kiln production lines nationwide by the end of 2025. Projects adopting advanced technologies—including suspension calcination and cascaded waste-heat recovery—are eligible for central budget investment subsidies of up to RMB 30 million per production line.
- The national standard for comprehensive energy consumption per unit of quicklime output was lowered in 2025—from 135 kgce/ton to 122 kgce/ton. Enterprises meeting this new standard qualify for a 30% reduction in resource tax (i.e., paying only 70% of the statutory rate); non-compliant enterprises are placed on the dynamic supervision list for key energy-consuming units. In 2025, 47 quicklime producers were suspended from obtaining approvals for new capacity expansion due to excessive energy consumption.

Technological Advancement
- The calcium oxide industry is undergoing a structural shift—from low-end, extensive production toward high-purity, precision manufacturing. Adoption rates of advanced calcination technologies (e.g., double-chamber kilns and rotary kilns) continue rising. Among designated large-scale calcium oxide producers nationwide, over 45% have completed upgrades to flue gas desulfurization and dust removal systems; average NOx emissions have decreased to below 120 mg/m3. Waste-heat recovery system penetration has increased to 62%, and some leading enterprises have begun piloting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

Import/Export Situation
- In 2022, China’s calcium oxide exports totaled 62,800 metric tons, valued at USD 9.5685 million. Primary export destinations included Indonesia (60.59% share) and Myanmar (25.10% share).
- In 2022, China imported 346.92 metric tons of calcium oxide, valued at USD 0.7583 million. Major import sources were Japan (69.91% share), Singapore, and the United States.

II. Analysis and Judgment

Reasons for Price Stability
Recent stability in calcium oxide prices stems primarily from balanced supply-demand fundamentals and policy-driven market regulation. On the supply side, gradual improvement in capacity utilization has ensured relatively stable output; on the demand side, steady growth across downstream application sectors—without sharp fluctuations—has maintained pricing equilibrium within a narrow band.

Reasons for Rising Industry Concentration
Although the number of designated large-scale enterprises decreased, the output share of the top ten firms rose—mainly driven by policy-facilitated industrial consolidation. Leading enterprises strengthened competitive advantages through technological upgrading, vertical integration, and green & low-carbon transformation—for instance, Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Group Lime Co., Ltd. commissioned an intelligent rotary kiln production line, while Henan Zhonglian Tongli Materials Co., Ltd. built an integrated industrial base. Consequently, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face mounting competitive pressure, resulting in their gradual exit or acquisition—thereby elevating overall industry concentration.

Drivers of Technological Upgrading
Stringent environmental and energy-consumption regulations constitute the principal catalyst for enterprise-level technological upgrading. To comply with tightened energy-efficiency standards and qualify for preferential policies, firms are compelled to adopt advanced calcination processes and energy-saving technologies—enhancing energy utilization efficiency and reducing carbon intensity per unit output. Concurrently, growing market demand for premium-grade calcium oxide (e.g., high-reactivity, low-sulfur, low-iron products) incentivizes manufacturers to upgrade quality and competitiveness.

III. Forecast

Price Trend
Calcium oxide prices are expected to remain relatively stable over the near-to-medium term. Although capacity utilization is poised to increase further, demand growth across downstream applications will likely stay moderate—preventing major imbalances in supply and demand. Moreover, continued policy oversight will help suppress substantial price volatility.

Industry Development Trends
- Continued Technological Upgrading: With ever-tightening environmental and energy-consumption requirements, enterprises will sustain investment in advanced calcination and energy-efficiency technologies to boost productivity and product quality. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is expected to see broader adoption, further lowering the sector’s carbon emission intensity.
- Further Consolidation and Higher Concentration: Industrial consolidation will persist, with leading firms expanding market share via mergers, acquisitions, and strategic reorganizations. SMEs will confront intensified survival pressure, driving further increases in industry concentration.
- Expansion into New Application Areas: Desulfurization and emerging environmental applications—including fly ash solidification from municipal waste incineration and CO? mineralization sequestration pilots—are experiencing rapid growth. Quicklime is thus evolving from a conventional industrial auxiliary material into a green, low-carbon functional material. Its application scope will continue broadening, generating new growth drivers for the industry.

Import/Export Outlook
As domestic calcium oxide producers enhance technological capabilities and product quality, export competitiveness is expected to strengthen further—supporting continued growth in both export volume and value. Meanwhile, rising domestic demand for high-end calcium oxide may lead to modest increases in import volume; however, import sourcing is likely to diversify beyond traditional suppliers.