Recent Market Intelligence Report on Single Superphosphate (SSP)

I. Price Dynamics
1. National Average Prices
- Domestic SSP containing 12% P?O?: National average price stood at RMB 1.02/kg as of April 8, 2026, up 0.99% week-on-week.
- Domestic SSP containing 16% P?O?: National average price stood at RMB 1.23/kg as of April 8, 2026, unchanged week-on-week.

2. Regional Price Disparities
- High-price Regions: Hainan Province (12% P?O?: RMB 1.30/kg; 16% P?O?: RMB 1.50/kg); Liaoning Province (12% P?O?: RMB 1.45/kg); Heilongjiang Province (16% P?O?: RMB 1.60/kg).
- Low-price Regions: Hebei Province (12% P?O?: RMB 0.72/kg; 16% P?O?: RMB 0.89/kg); Hubei Province (12% P?O?: RMB 0.77/kg; 16% P?O?: RMB 0.92/kg); Yunnan Province (12% P?O?: RMB 0.83/kg; 16% P?O?: RMB 1.04/kg).

3. Specific Regional Quotations
- Nanning Qingxiu District, Guangxi: SSP priced at RMB 1,200/ton.
- Shandong Province: Quotations range widely from RMB 770 to RMB 950/ton, varying by locality and supplier.
- Zhongxiang City, Jingmen, Hubei Province: SSP priced at RMB 1,025/ton.
- Hubei Provincial Agricultural Inputs Wholesale Market: Wholesale price for 12% P?O? SSP is RMB 1,000/ton; for 16% P?O? SSP, it is RMB 1,380/ton.

4. Price Volatility Trend
- Prices of certain specifications have increased by over 15% since the beginning of the year, reflecting notable market volatility.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Corporate Developments: Industry leaders—including Yuntianhua, Chuanfa Longma, and Guizhou Phosphate—have consolidated their market positions through vertical integration and technological upgrades; capacity utilization among the top ten enterprises has risen to 89.2%.
- Capacity Expansion: Nationally approved new granular SSP production capacity totals 3.28 million tons/year, with Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei provinces accounting for 73.5% of the total.

2. Demand Side
- Agricultural Demand: As agricultural demand continues to grow, SSP—being a key phosphatic fertilizer—maintains steady demand growth.
- Export Market: In 2025, China’s granular SSP exports totaled 426,000 tons, down 1.4% year-on-year; however, the average export price rose to USD 312/ton, up 5.3% year-on-year, indicating an ongoing increase in the share of high-value-added products in exports.

III. Cost-Side Influences
1. Sulfur Price: Sulfur—a core raw material in SSP production—exerts significant influence on production costs. Recently, sulfur prices surged sharply, further driving up SSP production costs.
2. Phosphate Rock Price: Phosphate rock, another critical raw material, also impacts SSP production costs. In recent years, tightening resource controls on phosphate rock have led to persistent supply tightness and rising prices.
3. Environmental Compliance Costs: Strengthened environmental regulations have increased enterprises’ environmental investment and operational expenditures, indirectly pushing up SSP market prices.

IV. Policy Impacts
1. Environmental Policies: Implementation of stricter environmental policies is promoting green, low-carbon development across the industry, accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity and industry consolidation. For example, MIIT mandates the shutdown of all open-acidulation production lines with single-line capacity below 300,000 tons/year by the end of 2026.
2. Export Policies: Adjustments to export policies significantly affect the SSP export market. For instance, GACC’s implementation of mandatory inspection requirements for fertilizers and other products has contributed to a decline in exports of triple superphosphate (TSP) from China.
3. Agricultural Policies: The State’s new “One-Trillion-Catty Grain Production Capacity Enhancement Action” explicitly incorporates efficient phosphorus fertilizer utilization into the special program for cultivated land quality improvement. In 2026, central government budgetary subsidies for soil-testing and formula fertilization will increase by 12.7% year-on-year, directly boosting county-level agricultural extension system procurement of single SSP.

Analysis & Judgment
1. Price Trend: SSP market prices are expected to remain elevated over the near term. Under combined pressure from cost-side factors and supply-demand dynamics, price volatility may intensify.
2. Supply-Demand Balance: With sustained growth in agricultural demand and gradual recovery in export markets, the SSP supply-demand balance is expected to improve. However, uncertainties persist due to overcapacity and stringent environmental regulations.
3. Industry Consolidation: Driven jointly by environmental regulation and market demand, the SSP industry will accelerate consolidation, with leading enterprises reinforcing their market positions via technological upgrading and vertical integration along the value chain.

Forecast
1. Market Size: China’s single SSP market size is projected to reach RMB 5.22 billion in 2026, representing a 7.4% year-on-year growth—slightly higher than the 2025 growth rate.
2. Export Market: With the regular operation of China–Laos Railway freight trains and optimization of RCEP rules of origin, the export share of total SSP output is expected to rise from 8.3% in 2025 to 10.1% in 2026, corresponding to an incremental export value of approximately RMB 210 million.
3. Technological Upgrading: The integrated wet-process phosphoric acid purification and single SSP co-production process is expected to lift the industry’s average gross profit per ton by RMB 120–150 within the next three years, enhancing overall industry competitiveness.