I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Export Prices: Long suppressed in the low-price range of USD 20–30/kg from 2023 to 2024, export prices surged abruptly to approximately USD 80/kg in March 2026—a rise exceeding 160% within three months, with peak increases nearing 300%.
- Domestic Prices: The domestic selling price for 9N-grade material declined from a prior peak of RMB 17,000/ton to RMB 5,500/ton; ordinary-grade prices fell from over RMB 5,000/ton to around RMB 3,000/ton.

2. Capacity and Production
- Sanfu Co., Ltd. operates an annual high-purity silicon tetrachloride capacity of 30,000 tons, producing both 6N- and 9N-grade products—with 6N-grade constituting the majority. Sales have risen continuously since Q4 2025, and the facility is currently operating at near-full capacity.
- China’s total silicon tetrachloride capacity exceeded 2 million tons/year in 2023, with actual output reaching ~1.6 million tons and capacity utilization holding steady at ~80%.

3. Supply-Demand Balance
- Demand Side:
- Optical Fiber Sector: Global demand for fiber-grade silicon tetrachloride is projected at 95,000–100,000 tons in 2026, while effective global capacity stands at only ~60,000 tons—resulting in an overall supply gap of 35,000–40,000 tons (gap rate: 37%–42%), including a 9N-grade shortfall of 25,000–28,000 tons. Fiber-optic cable exports reached record highs in both 2025 and 2026, driven by AI-driven data center expansion, 5G/6G infrastructure rollout, and semiconductor demand.
- Photovoltaic Sector: Ramp-up of polysilicon production has increased both by-product silicon tetrachloride resource utilization and external procurement needs. Moreover, rapid adoption of N-type cell technologies (e.g., TOPCon, HJT) compels polysilicon producers to upgrade cold-hydrogenation feedstock purity to 5N grade.
- Semiconductor Sector: Exhibits strong, inflexible demand for ultra-high-purity silane and fiber preform-grade silicon tetrachloride.
- Supply Side:
- Global effective annual capacity for 9N-grade (99.9999999%) high-purity silicon tetrachloride stands at ~45,000–50,000 tons, of which China accounts for ~30,000 tons (~60%–67%), virtually all supplied exclusively by Sanfu Co., Ltd. Overseas industry leaders—including Japan’s Shin-Etsu and Sumitomo (combined capacity: ~5,000–7,000 tons/year), Germany’s Wacker (~8,000–10,000 tons/year), and U.S.-based Momentive and Dow (combined: ~2,000–3,000 tons/year)—retain their high-purity output for internal use and do not sell externally.
- Silicon tetrachloride is highly toxic and corrosive, classified as a hazardous chemical. Regulatory approvals and environmental impact assessments for new production lines are exceptionally stringent. Constructing a 9N-grade production line—including commissioning and customer qualification—requires 18–24 months, resulting in pronounced short-term supply rigidity.

4. Trade Landscape
- China maintains a dual status of being both a net importer and net exporter: it remains dependent on imports of cutting-edge products from Japan and the U.S. (import dependency: ~5%–7%), while simultaneously exporting industrial-grade products to Southeast Asia—projected 2026 export volume: 35,000 tons, up 12% year-on-year.

II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Drivers of Price Increases
- Demand Growth: Record-high optical fiber and cable exports, AI-powered expansion of fiber preform manufacturing, 5G/6G infrastructure deployment, surging semiconductor demand, polysilicon capacity additions, and photovoltaic technology upgrades collectively drive sharp demand growth for silicon tetrachloride.
- Supply Constraints: Overseas manufacturers retain high-purity output internally; meanwhile, lengthy lead times and strict regulatory hurdles for new domestic capacity severely constrain near-term supply responsiveness—exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and fueling price hikes.

2. Characteristics of Market Structure
- Concentrated Capacity: China dominates global silicon tetrachloride production capacity, especially in high-purity grades. Sanfu Co., Ltd. holds an overwhelming leadership position in the 9N-grade high-purity segment.
- Regional Agglomeration: China’s silicon tetrachloride industry exhibits pronounced clustering, with the East China, Central China, and Northwest regions collectively accounting for >85% of national capacity.
- Technological Stratification: High-end electronic-grade products face significant technical barriers and extended qualification cycles, leading to large supply gaps; in contrast, industrial- and standard fiber-grade products suffer from oversupply and intensifying competition due to rapid capacity expansion.

III. Outlook
1. Supply-Demand Gap Forecast
- The market in 2026 will feature a complex interplay of 'structural shortages' and 'regional oversupply.' The supply gap for high-end electronic-grade products (purity ≥6N) is expected to remain at ~15%, while the 9N-grade fiber-optic segment will sustain a gap rate of 37%–42%. With Jianghan New Materials’ new 6N-grade capacity gradually coming online in H1 2027, medium- and low-end (6N) shortages may ease somewhat. However, the high-purity 9N-grade segment—constrained by extreme purification challenges and long expansion lead times (>1.5 years)—will likely remain critically undersupplied.

2. Price Trend Forecast
- Prices for high-end electronic-grade and 9N-grade fiber-optic products will remain elevated, exhibiting strong upward price elasticity driven by persistent supply gaps—potentially approaching the previous peak level of RMB 17,000/ton. Industrial-grade and standard fiber-grade product prices will fluctuate between RMB 6,000–8,000/ton, supported by cost floors yet moderated by competitive pressures.

3. Market Trend Forecast
- From 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected at 6.5%–7.8%. The primary growth engine will shift away from traditional optical fiber applications toward semiconductor precursor materials and vapor-phase silica feedstocks. Furthermore, as third-generation semiconductor industries mature, demand diversification will accelerate.