AbbVie Q1 2025 Earnings Report Interpretation: Immunology Stars Rise, Humira Era Ends?

In Q1 2025, AbbVie reported a mixed earnings result: total revenue grew by 8.4% year-over-year to $13.3 billion, with the immunology business making a strong comeback with a 16.6% growth. However, the once "king of drugs" Humira saw its sales drop by 50.6%, a sharp contrast to its previous dominance. The new drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have successfully taken over, contributing over $5.1 billion in the quarter, becoming the new engines for AbbVie’s performance. However, a reduction in R&D investment and declines in the aesthetics and ophthalmology businesses signal potential concerns for the healthcare giant.

The Strong Rise of the "Immunology Twins"

In AbbVie’s business landscape, the immunology segment is undoubtedly the core growth driver. In Q1 2025, immunology revenues reached $6.264 billion, growing 16.6% year-over-year. This growth was largely driven by the excellent performance of the "Immunology Twins"—Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which together accounted for 82% of the immunology business and have become the core force behind AbbVie’s overall performance growth.

Skyrizi: The New Dominant Force in Psoriasis and Crohn's Disease

Since its approval in 2019, Skyrizi (risankizumab) has rapidly emerged as a leader in the immunotherapy market due to its unique mechanism of action and significant efficacy. It specifically targets the IL-23p19 subunit, selectively blocking the inflammatory mediator interleukin-23 (IL-23), thereby effectively suppressing inflammation. This mechanism has proven highly effective in treating a range of autoimmune diseases.

In the field of psoriasis, Skyrizi primarily targets moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, offering a convenient dosing regimen of "once every 12 weeks," greatly improving patient adherence compared to other similar products. This convenience has enabled better patient compliance over long-term treatment, resulting in sustained improvement. Clinical data show that Skyrizi offers significant advantages in treating moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, improving skin symptoms and even achieving complete scar elimination or only minor scarring. In Q1 2025, Skyrizi's sales reached $3.425 billion, growing 70.5% year-over-year, continuing to capture market share from Johnson & Johnson's Stelara. In some head-to-head clinical trials, Skyrizi has demonstrated superior efficacy over Stelara, leading more doctors and patients to choose it as the preferred treatment for psoriasis, expanding its market share.

In addition to psoriasis, Skyrizi has also made significant breakthroughs in treating Crohn's disease. In 2023, Skyrizi was approved by the FDA and the European Commission for treating moderate-to-severe active Crohn's disease in adult patients, becoming the first specific IL-23 inhibitor approved for Crohn's disease in both the EU and the US. In relevant phase 3 clinical studies, a high proportion of patients receiving Skyrizi achieved clinical remission and endoscopic response, with mucosal healing and endoscopic remission significantly better than the placebo group. This achievement has provided new hope for Crohn's disease patients and further expanded Skyrizi's market, driving its sales growth.

Rinvoq: Expanding Indications for JAK Inhibitor

Rinvoq (upadacitinib) is a selective and reversible JAK1 inhibitor taken orally once daily. By inhibiting JAK enzyme activity, it blocks the signaling pathway, reducing inflammation and improving symptoms in patients. Since its approval in 2019 for treating moderate-to-severe active rheumatoid arthritis in adults who have had an inadequate response to or are intolerant to methotrexate, Rinvoq has continuously expanded its indications and demonstrated significant efficacy in various immune-mediated diseases.

In rheumatoid arthritis, Rinvoq significantly improves joint function, reduces joint swelling and pain, and enhances patients' quality of life. Clinical trials have shown that patients treated with Rinvoq have significantly reduced inflammation markers, and their joint mobility is effectively restored. Rinvoq has also performed well in atopic dermatitis, regulating immune cell activity and the release of inflammatory factors, alleviating skin itching, erythema, and inflammation, thereby effectively easing skin lesions.

In 2022, Rinvoq reached an important milestone when the FDA approved its expanded indication for treating moderate-to-severe active ulcerative colitis in adults, marking its first gastrointestinal indication. This approval came after three phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies demonstrated its effectiveness and safety. In these studies, Rinvoq achieved clinical remission as the primary endpoint at 8 weeks and 52 weeks, with a higher proportion of patients achieving clinical response, as well as achieving key endoscopic and histological improvement at week 8 and week 52. This breakthrough not only provided a new treatment option for ulcerative colitis patients but also expanded Rinvoq's market demand, accelerating its revenue growth. In Q1 2025, Rinvoq generated $1.718 billion in revenue, growing 57.2% year-over-year, showing strong growth momentum.

The Glorious End of Humira

The Collapse of the Sales of the Former "King of Drugs"

Once, Humira (adalimumab) was undoubtedly a shining star in the global pharmaceutical market, known as the "king of drugs." Since its FDA approval in December 2002, Humira achieved tremendous success worldwide due to its strong efficacy and wide range of indications. It was the first fully human anti-TNF monoclonal antibody approved for marketing, specifically targeting tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and blocking its interaction with cell surface receptors to suppress inflammation. Humira has played a significant role in treating various autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and psoriasis.

At its peak, Humira's annual sales exceeded $20 billion, bringing AbbVie huge profits. From 2012 onwards, Humira remained the best-selling drug globally for many years, with its sales performance reflecting not only the value of the product itself but also the enormous market demand for autoimmune disease treatments. However, as its patent protection period came to an end, Humira’s market dominance began to face severe challenges. In 2016, Humira’s patent expired in Europe, and biosimilars flooded the market, quickly capturing Humira’s market share. By 2023, Humira's patent also expired in the US, intensifying competition. In Q1 2025, Humira's revenue for the quarter was only $1.121 billion, a 50.6% drop year-over-year. Compared to its peak sales, its revenue has plunged dramatically. It is expected that its total sales in 2025 will fall below $5 billion, and the once-glorious era of Humira is now fading.

AbbVie’s Preparations and Industry Insights

Faced with the inevitable expiration of Humira's patent, AbbVie did not sit idly by but began preparing new products 8 years in advance. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are the carefully cultivated "successors." Through a dual strategy of "internal R&D + external acquisitions," AbbVie has built a rich product portfolio to mitigate the impact of the Humira patent cliff. This proactive strategy not only reflects AbbVie’s keen market insight but also demonstrates its strong R&D capabilities and innovation.

This case also offers profound insights for the entire pharmaceutical industry. In the pharmaceutical field, innovation is the core driving force for enterprise development. "Dependency on a single product" often brings significant risks. Once the patent for a core product expires, companies lacking innovation and new product reserves are likely to face growth bottlenecks. Companies such as Sanofi and Amgen have gradually encountered difficulties in the market due to a lack of innovation, failing to launch competitive new products. Therefore, enterprises must continuously increase R&D investment, innovate constantly, and build diversified product pipelines to remain competitive in the intense market environment.

Humira’s Dilemma in China

In the Chinese market, Humira is also facing severe challenges. In 2024, Humira’s patent expired in China, opening the door for domestic generic drug companies to enter the market. Companies such as Chengdu Huarun Tianqing and Fosun Kite have quickly launched biosimilars of Humira, and these generics, with their price advantage, have rapidly captured market share. According to related data, the market share of the original drug Humira has shrunk to 40%, causing a significant shift in the market structure.

For AbbVie, the Chinese market is a key part of its global strategy. Faced with the competition from generics, AbbVie needs to adopt more proactive market strategies, such as optimizing product pricing, strengthening market promotion, and improving product services to maintain its competitiveness in the Chinese market. It also needs to speed up the launch of new products in China, using the advantages of new products to offset the decline in Humira’s market share. For domestic generic drug companies, while they have seized the market opportunity, they also face challenges such as quality control and market promotion, requiring continuous improvement to gain a larger share in the competitive market.

Counterattacks from Competitors

In the fiercely competitive immunology treatment market, AbbVie has achieved impressive results with its "Immuno-Duo," but its competitors are also formidable, launching various strategies to retaliate.

Johnson & Johnson: Multi-Product Immuno Counterattack

As one of the global pharmaceutical giants, Johnson & Johnson has deep expertise and strong competitiveness in immunology treatments. Its Tremfya (guselkumab) is an IL-23 monoclonal antibody, targeting the IL-23p19 subunit, just like Skyrizi, and used to treat moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and other autoimmune diseases. Tremfya has demonstrated excellent performance in treating psoriasis, effectively improving skin symptoms and enhancing the quality of life. To further expand its market, Tremfya is accelerating the expansion of its Crohn’s disease indication. In clinical trials, Tremfya has shown positive efficacy signals for Crohn’s disease, likely providing new treatment options for Crohn’s disease patients and expanding its market share.

Johnson & Johnson also launched the oral JAK inhibitor Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) for the psoriasis market. Sotyktu is the first approved TYK2 inhibitor globally, selectively binding to the pseudo-kinase domain (JH2) of TYK2, inhibiting its activity without affecting JAK1/2/3 functions. Unlike traditional JAK inhibitors, Sotyktu avoids the cardiovascular events or venous thromboembolism-related adverse events associated with JAK1/2/3 inhibition, offering better safety. In key phase III POETYKPSO-1 and POETYKPSO-2 trials, Sotyktu showed significant efficacy, with 58.7% and 53.6% of patients achieving PASI75 at week 16, significantly better than the placebo group and Apremilast group. This outstanding clinical data has made Sotyktu a strong competitor in the psoriasis market, posing a formidable challenge to AbbVie’s Rinvoq and other products.

In Q1 2025, Johnson & Johnson’s immunology business performed strongly, with revenue reaching $4.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase. This growth is attributed to its multi-product strategy and ongoing market expansion efforts in immunology. The continuous growth of products like Tremfya and Sotyktu, along with the stable performance of other immuno-products, have driven the growth of Johnson & Johnson’s immunology business. As Tremfya and Sotyktu’s indications continue to expand and more new products are launched, Johnson & Johnson is poised to maintain strong competitiveness in the immunology market, intensifying market competition with AbbVie.

Novartis: Expansion of Cosentyx's Indications and Diversified Layout

Novartis' Cosentyx (secukinumab) is an IL-17A monoclonal antibody, holding an important position in the immunology treatment market. Cosentyx is primarily used to treat psoriasis, ankylosing spondylitis, and other autoimmune diseases, working by specifically binding to IL-17A and blocking its interaction with its receptor, thereby inhibiting the inflammatory response. In psoriasis treatment, Cosentyx offers rapid and long-lasting efficacy, significantly improving skin symptoms, making it one of the key treatment options for many psoriasis patients.

In Q1 2025, Cosentyx added a new indication for alopecia areata, injecting new momentum into its market growth. Alopecia areata is a common autoimmune hair loss disease that severely affects patients' mental health and quality of life. Cosentyx's breakthrough in alopecia areata provides new hope for patients suffering from the condition. Clinical trials show that Cosentyx is highly effective in treating alopecia areata, promoting hair growth and improving patients' appearance. This expansion of indications has further increased Cosentyx's market demand, leading to increased sales. In Q1 2025, Cosentyx's sales reached $1.67 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase.

In addition to Cosentyx, Novartis also diversified its risk dependency on immunology products by launching the oral therapy Scemblix (asciminib) for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Scemblix works by inhibiting the ABL tyrosine kinase in hematopoietic stem cells, blocking the growth and spread of leukemia cells. In CML treatment, Scemblix has shown distinct advantages over traditional therapies, offering better safety and tolerability as well as a higher major molecular response rate. The successful launch of Scemblix has provided a new treatment option for CML patients, marking significant progress in Novartis’ oncology treatment portfolio and further optimizing its product structure, reducing dependence on immunology products. In Q1 2025, Scemblix's sales grew 45%, becoming a new highlight for Novartis' business growth.

BMS: Opportunities and Challenges for Deucravacitinib

Bristol-Myers Squibb's Deucravacitinib (deucravacitinib) is also a TYK2 inhibitor, posing a strong challenge to Rinvoq in the psoriasis field. Deucravacitinib works by selectively inhibiting TYK2, blocking inflammatory signal transmission to treat psoriasis. Clinical studies show that Deucravacitinib has excellent efficacy and safety profiles. In key phase III trials, the proportion of patients achieving PASI75 at week 16 was significantly higher than that of placebo and positive control drug groups. Its clinical efficacy continued to be maintained over long-term extension studies lasting up to two years. These excellent clinical data have made Deucravacitinib a strong competitor in the psoriasis market, attracting attention from many doctors and patients.

However, Deucravacitinib also faces some challenges, with liver toxicity issues being a major factor limiting its uptake. Some patients exhibited elevated liver enzymes after using Deucravacitinib during clinical trials. Although the specific mechanisms behind this phenomenon are not fully understood, concerns over liver toxicity have undoubtedly exerted pressure on its market promotion. Some doctors and patients have safety concerns, making them more cautious when choosing treatment options. To address this challenge, BMS needs to conduct further research to better understand the mechanisms behind liver toxicity, take effective measures to mitigate the risk, and strengthen communication with doctors and patients to enhance their awareness and trust in Deucravacitinib. Only by resolving these liver toxicity concerns can Deucravacitinib achieve greater market adoption and fully realize its competitive advantage.

Conclusion

AbbVie's financial report underscores a fundamental law of the pharmaceutical industry — there is no eternal "Drug King," only eternal innovation. The successful relay of Skyrizi and Rinvoq showcases AbbVie’s decisiveness in transformation, while Humira’s rapid downfall also serves as a stern reminder of the urgent need for continuous innovation. Facing encirclement from Johnson & Johnson and Novartis and gaps in its own pipeline, AbbVie must find a new balance through mergers, collaborations, and in-house research. Whether it can replicate its immunology miracles in the fields of neuroscience and oncology will ultimately determine whether it can maintain its place in the global top 5 pharmaceutical companies. For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, AbbVie's experience serves as a mirror: only continuous innovation can endure through cycles.