AES Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Recent Market Price Dynamics
(A) Price Fluctuation Range
As of May 19, 2026, AES (Sodium Lauryl Ether Sulfate) market prices exhibit significant regional divergence:
- East China Region: Mainstream quotations range from RMB 10,600 to 11,000 per metric ton (ex-factory, water-based), down approximately RMB 400/ton from the beginning of the month.
- South China Region: Loose-water ex-works prices range from RMB 11,300 to 11,600/ton; some industrial-grade products are quoted as low as RMB 9,000/ton.
- Central China Region: A low-price supply of RMB 6,450/ton has emerged in Hubei Province—approximately 40% lower than prices in East and South China.
- Southwest China Region: Industrial-grade AES in Sichuan Province is priced as high as RMB 13,000/ton, primarily driven by regional supply tightness.

(B) Historical Price Comparison
- July 2025 Benchmark Price: RMB 8,560/ton (from Binsisi data), representing a near-one-year low.
- 2026 Price Trend:
January–April: Prices fluctuated sharply within the RMB 6,200–12,500/ton range; multiple lows of RMB 6,200/ton were recorded between late March and mid-April.
Early May: Prices in East and South China rebounded briefly to RMB 11,100–11,500/ton, but declined again mid-month due to cost pressures.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
(A) Cost-Driven Pressures
1. Sharp Decline in Fatty Alcohol Prices:
- As of May 11, C12–C14 alcohol prices in East and South China stood at RMB 23,000–23,500/ton, down over 20% year-on-year.
- High inventory levels of palm kernel oil, coupled with surfactant manufacturers’ operating rates below 50%, have led to weak demand and supply—forcing holders to sell at discounted prices.
2. Weak Ethylene Oxide (EO) Market:
- EO prices in East and South China fell to RMB 8,200/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of over 10%.
- Tight ethylene spot supply and downstream buyers’ limited restocking needs have resulted in a stalemate, further eroding cost support.

(B) Supply-Demand Landscape Shifts
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic AES capacity utilization stands at ~65%, up 5 percentage points from 2023, yet regional oversupply remains pronounced.
- Some plants in East and South China have intensified price-cutting promotions amid mounting inventory pressure.
2. Demand Side:
- Civil detergent demand grew by 8% year-on-year; however, personal care product demand—impacted by consumer downgrade—slowed to only 3% growth.
- Industrial cleaning demand remains stable but accounts for less than 20% of total demand, insufficient to offset weakness in civil markets.

(C) Regional Market Divergence
1. East & South China:
- Intense price competition and frequent emergence of low-priced supplies stem from concentrated regional production capacity and constrained export channels.
2. Central & Southwest China:
- Higher pricing is supported by elevated logistics costs and localized supply shortages—yet elevated prices are dampening downstream procurement activity.

III. Future Trend Outlook
(A) Short Term (1–3 Months)
1. Price Trend:
- Mainstream prices in East and South China may fall to RMB 10,000–10,500/ton; Central and Southwest China prices could retreat to RMB 8,000–9,000/ton.
- Should fatty alcohol prices continue declining, AES prices may approach a five-year low (~RMB 9,500/ton).
2. Key Drivers:
- Slow digestion of palm kernel oil inventories implies little near-term rebound potential for fatty alcohol prices.
- EO prices remain stagnant, while downstream restocking capacity is limited.
- The upcoming summer detergent consumption peak may provide marginal demand support.

(B) Medium Term (6–12 Months)
1. Price Center:
- Prices are expected to oscillate within RMB 10,000–11,500/ton, with narrowing volatility.
2. Critical Variables:
- Raw Material Costs: Production cuts in palm oil–producing countries or surging biodiesel demand could drive fatty alcohol prices upward.
- Policy Impact: Stricter environmental regulations may accelerate exit of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), enhancing industry concentration and price stability.
- Export Markets: Growing demand in emerging markets—including Southeast Asia and Africa—may alleviate domestic supply pressure.

(C) Long Term (1–3 Years)
1. Industry Trends:
- Green Transition: Share of phosphate-free, biodegradable AES products is projected to exceed 30%, pushing premium segment prices higher.
- Technological Upgrading: Widespread adoption of continuous-process manufacturing may reduce unit production costs by 10–15%, intensifying competition in the mid-to-low-end segments.
2. Price Outlook:
- Standard industrial-grade AES prices may stabilize long-term in the RMB 9,000–10,000/ton range, while premium products could surpass RMB 15,000/ton.

IV. Risk Alerts
1. Raw Material Price Collapse Risk: Should palm kernel oil prices fall below RMB 6,000/ton, AES costs could experience a ‘catastrophic’ decline.
2. Demand Underperformance Risk: A global economic recession could trigger >5% contraction in civil detergent demand.
3. Regional Trade Barrier Risk: Adjustments to import tariffs in Southeast Asia may disrupt China’s AES export market.