Ethylene Glycol Diacetate Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Recent Market Price Dynamics
1. Quotation Data
- As of May 25, 2026:
- Suzhou Senfeida Chemical Co., Ltd. (Domestic, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province): RMB 13,300/ton
- Shandong Yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. (Domestic, Jinan City, Shandong Province): RMB 7,000/ton (multi-specification quotations, including purities of 99.6% and 99.9%)
- Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Aochen Brand, Hubei Province): RMB 7,500/ton
- Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. (Domestic, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province): RMB 9,000/ton
- Price Range: RMB 7,000–13,300/ton; significant regional price differentials (e.g., over RMB 6,000/ton between Jiangsu and Shandong).

2. Price Volatility Characteristics
- Shandong Yushuo Chemical’s quotation remained stable (RMB 7,000/ton continuously from May 22–26), indicating regional supply stability;
- Suzhou Senfeida’s high quotation—unchanged—may reflect product purity advantages or brand premium;
- Nantong Zhonghe Chemical introduced a new quotation of RMB 9,000/ton on May 26, reflecting localized supply-demand adjustments.

II. Driving Factor Analysis
1. Upstream Raw Material Impact
- Collapse in Ethylene Glycol (EG) Costs:
- Domestic oil-based EG prices declined significantly in May 2026, with average prices down 4.88% month-on-month; the benchmark futures contract fell 3.19% in a single day;
- The primary catalyst was heightened market anticipation of a U.S.–Iran agreement draft, triggering a >6% plunge in crude oil prices—directly compressing production costs for oil-based EG;
- Coal-based EG profitability improved, sustaining operating rates above 60%, further lowering the spot cost floor.
- Transmission Effect: As EG is the primary raw material for ethylene glycol diacetate, its price decline may reduce production costs—but current market quotations have yet to fully reflect this downward cost pressure.

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Domestic coal-based EG supply continues to ramp up; operating rates remained elevated in May, ensuring ample feedstock availability;
- Import volume reduction expectations remain delayed—short-term arrival schedules have not fully materialized—and port inventories, though declining, remain at moderate levels (683,000 tons).
- Demand Side:
- Polyester industry operating rates declined year-on-year by 3–5 percentage points (to 75%–77%); downstream weaving order intake remains extremely weak, with Jiangsu–Zhejiang weaving machine utilization at only 66%;
- Polyester plants’ raw material inventory coverage dropped to 7.5 days—the lowest in three years—indicating purely demand-driven procurement, indirectly suppressing demand for ethylene glycol diacetate.
- Inventory Pressure: Although East China main port inventories continue to deplete, absolute stockpiles remain relatively high, offering limited price support.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Behavior
- EG futures benchmark contract broke below the critical support level of RMB 4,600/ton, triggering algorithmic trading stop-loss orders and unleashing concentrated short-side pressure;
- Weak terminal demand and eroding cost support have worsened market expectations for the traditional off-season (June–July), resulting in pronounced wait-and-see sentiment among traders and downstream manufacturers.

III. Forward Trend Outlook
1. Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Continued Price Weakness:
- Weak cost support from EG, coupled with sluggish polyester off-season demand, suggests continued downward pressure on ethylene glycol diacetate prices;
- Regional price spreads may widen—low-quotation regions (e.g., Shandong) may maintain stability due to abundant supply, while high-quotation regions (e.g., Jiangsu) could see modest downward adjustments amid weak demand.
- Volatility Risks:
- Monitor crude oil price fluctuations (e.g., progress on the U.S.–Iran agreement) and EG futures market sentiment, which may trigger sharp short-term price volatility.

2. Medium Term (1–3 Months)
- Demand Recovery Expectations:
- If downstream weaving order intake improves (e.g., initiation of autumn/winter fabric orders), polyester operating rates may rebound—potentially lifting demand for ethylene glycol diacetate;
- Expected import reductions are likely to gradually materialize, supporting further port inventory drawdowns and providing potential price support.
- Lagged Cost Transmission:
- The transmission of EG’s price decline to ethylene glycol diacetate typically requires 1–2 months; medium-term pricing may face downward pressure from lower input costs—but the magnitude will depend on the strength of demand recovery.

3. Long Term (6+ Months)
- Cyclical Industry Dynamics:
- The global EG market is projected to shift from oversupply in 2025 to shortage in 2026, potentially elevating the long-term price center;
- As a downstream derivative, ethylene glycol diacetate pricing is expected to broadly track EG trends—though volatility may be dampened due to application-specific demand characteristics.
- Structural Opportunities:
- Growing demand for eco-friendly solvents (e.g., water-based adhesives, electronic inks) may expand price premiums for high-purity ethylene glycol diacetate (e.g., 99.9% grade).

IV. Risk Warnings
1. Geopolitical Risk: Progress on the U.S.–Iran agreement or Middle East supply disruptions may cause sharp crude oil price fluctuations—indirectly impacting EG and ethylene glycol diacetate production costs;
2. Demand Underperformance: Prolonged weakness in downstream weaving order intake—or further declines in polyester operating rates—could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances;
3. Inventory Accumulation Risk: Unexpected surges in import arrivals or accelerated domestic coal-based EG output may lead to renewed port inventory build-up, constraining price upside potential.