Market Intelligence Report on Calcium Carbonate in the Commodity Market (Recent Updates)

I. Price Dynamics
1. Ordinary Calcium Carbonate:
- As of May 19, 2026, quotations from certain manufacturers stood at RMB 1,350 per metric ton.
- On May 17, 2026, the ex-factory price for Zhonglian Brand calcium carbonate (Shandong Province) was RMB 6,800 per metric ton for 98.5% purity and RMB 7,800 per metric ton for 99% purity.
- On April 26, 2026, quotations from some manufacturers reached as high as RMB 3,800 per metric ton—likely reflecting premium grades, ultra-high purity, or specialty specifications.

2. High-Purity Calcium Carbonate:
- High-purity calcium carbonate (>99% purity) commands significantly higher prices than ordinary grades, sustained by robust demand from emerging sectors including new energy, pharmaceuticals, and food applications.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Industry concentration has increased: the CR5 (combined market share of the top five producers) rose from 31.4% in 2025 to 36.7% in 2026. Leading enterprises are consolidating market position through technological barriers and resource advantages.
- Five major industrial clusters—Guangxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hebei—account for over 60% of total national capacity. Hezhou (Guangxi), endowed with abundant limestone resources, is now the largest production base.
- Stricter environmental regulations are accelerating the exit of small- and medium-sized producers; an estimated 15% of outdated capacity is expected to be phased out in 2026. The cap on comprehensive energy consumption per ton of product has been lowered to 85 kg standard coal equivalent.

2. Demand Side:
- Traditional sectors—including plastics, papermaking, and coatings—collectively account for over 70% of total demand, exhibiting steady growth. Specifically:
The plastics industry’s annual demand for nano-grade and surface-modified calcium carbonate grows by 15.2%.
Water-based coating transformation drives demand for fine-particle-size, high-brightness products.
- Emerging sectors:
Demand for battery separator coating and semiconductor packaging materials surged from RMB 0.3 billion in 2025 to RMB 1.8 billion in 2026—a 500% year-on-year increase.
With new-energy vehicle (NEV) production projected at 12.5 million units in 2026, incremental annual demand for active calcium carbonate in automotive engineering plastics is estimated at ~186,000 metric tons.
Substitution application of calcium carbonate in biodegradable plastic PBAT remains at the laboratory validation stage; its commercialization timeline remains pending clarification.

III. Policy & Standards
1. National Standard Upgrades:
- Effective 2026, GB 1886.214–2026 “Food Additive – Calcium Carbonate” mandates microbiological and heavy-metal limits aligned with EU standards—accelerating the withdrawal of non-compliant small- and medium-scale producers.
- Local policies—including the “Hezhou Municipal Regulation on Promoting the Calcium Carbonate Industry”—support high-end, intelligent, and green industrial transformation.

2. Fiscal Subsidies:
- In 2026, fiscal subsidies under the Special Program for High-Performance Inorganic Functional Powders increased by 23.5% year-on-year, supporting enterprise technology upgrades.

IV. International Trade
1. Imports:
- From January to September 2024, China’s calcium carbonate imports rose 58.68% year-on-year—indicating continued reliance on imported high-end products.
2. Exports:
- Over the same period (Jan–Sep 2024), exports grew 9.63% year-on-year. However, Vietnam and Turkey reduced their import tariffs on calcium carbonate to 4.8% and 5.2%, respectively, in 2026—potentially intensifying price competition in the mid-to-lower-tier segment.

Analysis & Judgment
1. Price Divergence:
- Ordinary calcium carbonate faces pricing pressure due to oversupply in mid-to-low-tier segments and import competition; conversely, high-purity grades maintain elevated pricing, supported by surging demand from emerging sectors.
2. Technology-Driven Differentiation:
- Enterprises mastering wet-grinding, surface modification, and nano-scale preparation technologies (e.g., Guilin Jinshan, Zhejiang Calcium Carbonate Technology Co., Ltd.) have secured long-term contracts with leading customers—establishing formidable technological moats.
3. Optimized Regional Layout:
- Logistics cost differentials between resource-rich regions (e.g., Guangxi, Jiangxi) and high-demand downstream markets (e.g., East and South China) create opportunities for suppliers located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (e.g., Tianjin Yandong).
4. Policy Dividend Realization:
- Under China’s “Dual Carbon” goals (carbon peak & carbon neutrality), green manufacturing initiatives favor integrated projects with captive limestone mines and photovoltaic power generation systems—such as the Jiangxi Yongfeng Industrial Park—delivering pronounced cost advantages.

Forecast
1. Short Term (Second Half of 2026):
- Ordinary calcium carbonate prices may decline modestly amid ongoing elimination of outdated capacity and adjustments in import tariffs; high-purity grades are expected to remain stable, underpinned by strong new-energy demand.
- Industry concentration will further increase, with CR5 potentially exceeding 40%, widening the market share gap between leaders and laggards.

2. Medium Term (2027–2028):
- Sustained demand expansion from NEVs, biodegradable plastics, and other emerging applications will propel the high-purity calcium carbonate market at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 12.5%. The market size is projected to surpass RMB 25 billion by 2025.
- Technical barriers in synthetic calcium carbonate production will become increasingly prominent; firms controlling mineral resources, holding surface-modification patents, and certified for food/pharmaceutical use will command valuation premiums.

3. Long Term (Post-2029):
- The calcium carbonate industry will enter a maturity phase defined by “quality-for-market-share” and “technology-for-competitive-position.” The share of high-end functional products is expected to exceed 50%; industry-average return on equity (ROE) will stabilize within the range of 14.2%–16.8%.
- Should calcium carbonate substitution in PBAT biodegradable plastics achieve commercial-scale implementation, it could catalyze an entirely new demand growth vector.