Acrylic Acid Butyl Ester Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
(A) Price Trend
- Recent Price Data: From May 14 to 22, 2026, the price of acrylic acid butyl ester exhibited a narrow-range consolidation pattern. On May 14, the price was reported at RMB 8,387.5 per ton; thereafter, it fluctuated marginally, closing at RMB 8,431.25 per ton on May 22—an increase of RMB 6.25 per ton (0.07%) from the previous day.
- Regional Price Disparities: As of May 23, 2026, quotations for acrylic acid butyl ester varied across different traders and production origins. Shandong Yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 9,600 per ton for domestically produced acrylic acid butyl ester in Jinan City, Shandong Province; Shandong Aite Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,400 per ton for its domestic product in Shandong Province; Qingdao Shengze Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,300 per ton for Wanhua Chemical’s Shandong-produced acrylic acid butyl ester; and Shandong Junfeng New Materials Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,000 per ton for Zhejiang Satellite Chemical’s acrylic acid butyl ester in Jinan City, Shandong Province.

(B) Supply-Demand Balance
- Supply Side: Domestic acrylic acid butyl ester capacity continues to expand, with large-scale enterprises dominating the sector. As of 2025, China’s total national capacity exceeded 1.8 million tons/year, with actual output reaching approximately 1.5 million tons and an average capacity utilization rate of around 83%. Full-year output in 2026 is projected to reach 1.6 million tons.
- Demand Side: Primary end-use sectors include coatings, adhesives, and textile auxiliaries. Rapid growth in construction, automotive, and home appliance industries has driven steady annual demand growth. In 2025, consumption reached 1.386 million tons, up 5.2% year-on-year; the coatings and adhesives segments collectively accounted for over 72% of total consumption.

(C) Trade Developments
- Export Constraints: On April 22, 2026, South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance announced the imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on acrylic acid butyl ester originating from China, ranging from 9.53% to 19.17%. Affected exporters include Taixing Shengke Chemical Co., Ltd., Shanghai Huayi New Materials Co., Ltd., and Pinghu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. The measure takes effect for four months, expiring on August 21, 2026. South Korea represents a key export market for Chinese acrylic acid butyl ester: from January to March 2026, China’s cumulative exports totaled 65,600 tons, of which 9,500 tons (14.48%) were shipped to South Korea; in March alone, exports to South Korea amounted to 4,800 tons (14.37%). This temporary trade barrier will directly raise export costs and cause order losses for affected Chinese enterprises.
- Import Situation: No recent import-related developments are mentioned in the report.

(D) Corporate Developments
- Price Adjustments: On May 18, 2026, Satellite Chemical Co., Ltd. adjusted its acrylic acid butyl ester prices: North China market price dropped by RMB 700/ton to RMB 9,100/ton; South China market price fell by RMB 600/ton to RMB 9,300/ton; East China market price declined by RMB 200/ton to RMB 9,000/ton.
- Capacity Deployment: Pinghu Petrochemical—a subsidiary of Satellite Chemical—is one of the world’s largest acrylic acid and esters production bases, with an annual capacity of 780,000 tons, representing 19% of China’s total national capacity. It faces the highest anti-dumping duty rate (19.17%) in the South Korean investigation.

II. Analysis and Judgment
(A) Reasons for Narrow-Range Price Consolidation
- Fundamental Supply-Demand Equilibrium: The supply-demand balance for acrylic acid butyl ester remains broadly stable, albeit with persistent structural imbalances. While supply continues expanding through new capacity additions, demand also grows steadily—preventing significant price volatility and sustaining narrow-range consolidation.
- Prevailing Market Caution: Market participants—including traders and downstream users—exhibit pronounced caution in procurement decisions, resulting in subdued trading activity and insufficient momentum for substantial price movement either upward or downward.

(B) Causes of Regional Price Disparities
- Transportation Costs: Regional variations in logistics expenses impact final delivered pricing—for example, higher freight costs to distant locations typically translate into elevated local quotations.
- Local Competitive Intensity: Varying degrees of regional competition drive differential pricing strategies. In highly competitive markets, enterprises may lower quotations to gain or retain market share.

(C) Impacts of South Korean Anti-Dumping Duties
- Increased Export Costs: The provisional anti-dumping duties directly raise export costs for Chinese producers, squeezing profit margins.
- Order Diversion Risk: Elevated tariffs may prompt South Korean buyers to shift procurement to alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere—leading to order losses, especially for high-duty exporters such as Pinghu Petrochemical, whose near-term operational impact is particularly acute.
- Intensified Domestic Competition: Export-constrained volumes risk being redirected to the domestic market, further increasing supply pressure and intensifying intra-market competition—potentially exerting downward pressure on domestic prices.

III. Forecast
(A) Price Trend Outlook
- Short-Term: Acrylic acid butyl ester prices are expected to maintain narrow-range consolidation in the near term. First, the prevailing supply-demand equilibrium is unlikely to shift significantly over the short horizon; second, ongoing uncertainty stemming from the South Korean anti-dumping measures continues to foster cautious sentiment among market participants, suppressing transactional vitality.
- Long-Term: Looking ahead, new production facilities—including BASF Zhanjiang and Tianjin Bohua—are scheduled to commence operations in Q3–Q4 2026, increasing seller inventory pressure. Concurrently, raw material n-butanol prices are anticipated to decline due to expanded supply, reducing cost support for acrylic acid butyl ester. Consequently, a downward price trend is likely over the medium-to-longer term.

(B) Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply: Acrylic acid butyl ester capacity is projected to continue expanding, driving higher overall supply volume. However, tightening environmental and safety regulations may constrain expansion of energy-intensive, high-emission facilities, potentially leading to phased-out outdated capacity.
- Demand: Continued development of construction, automotive, and home appliance industries will sustain demand growth. Moreover, demand for premium-grade, customized, and eco-friendly products—produced via green manufacturing processes—is expected to rise progressively, elevating market expectations regarding product quality and performance.

(C) Trade Outlook
- Exports: Upon expiration of the South Korean anti-dumping duties, exports to South Korea may gradually recover—if bilateral trade tensions ease. However, policy uncertainty persists in other emerging markets (e.g., India), necessitating close monitoring of international regulatory developments and proactive diversification into alternative markets to reduce overreliance on any single destination.
- Imports: With continuous domestic capacity expansion, import volumes of acrylic acid butyl ester are likely to decline gradually. Nevertheless, certain high-end specialty grades may still require imports to satisfy specific domestic demand.