Dynamic Market Intelligence Report on Triethanolamine (TEA)

I. Price Trends
1. National Benchmark Prices:
- In April 2026, the national reference price of triethanolamine exhibited an upward trend. From April 1 to April 18, the price rose from RMB 6,570 per metric ton to RMB 7,800 per metric ton, representing an increase of 18.72%.
- On May 1, the reference price stood at RMB 7,833.33 per metric ton—a 19.23% increase compared to April 1.
- Recently (around May 25), market quotations have shown volatility: some manufacturers’ quotations dropped as low as RMB 5,000–5,400 per metric ton; however, high-purity (≥99%) products remain priced at premium levels—for instance, BASF’s 99% TEA in Jinan, Shandong Province, was quoted at RMB 8,300 per metric ton.

2. Regional Price Differentials:
- High-price Regions: Shanghai (RMB 9,900–9,950/ton for BASF/Dow products); Jinan, Shandong Province (RMB 8,000–8,600/ton for BASF products).
- Mid-price Regions: Nanjing, Jiangsu Province (RMB 6,800/ton for Sinopec Srb Chemical products); Zhejiang Province (RMB 6,500/ton for domestic 85% purity products).
- Low-price Regions: Weifang, Shandong Province (RMB 5,500/ton for domestic 85% purity products); Nantong, Jiangsu Province (RMB 5,500/ton for domestic 99% purity products).

3. Purity-based Price Differentials:
- Significant price gaps exist across different purity grades; ≥99% purity products generally command premiums of 10–30% over 85% purity products. For example, BASF’s 99% TEA in Jinan, Shandong Province, is quoted at RMB 8,300/ton, while the local 85% purity product is priced at RMB 5,600/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Situation:
- China’s domestic TEA production capacity reached 1.2 million metric tons in 2025—substantially exceeding the projected annual demand (~850,000 tons)—intensifying price competition.
- Domestic producers hold over 70% market share; industry leaders such as Hengli Petrochemical and Satellite Chemical have consolidated dominance through capacity expansion and technological upgrades.
- Newly commissioned production facilities are coming online sequentially, further intensifying market competition.

2. Demand Situation:
- Traditional End-uses: Surfactants (43.7% share), textile & dyeing (27.2% share), and oilfield services exhibit steady growth.
- Emerging Applications: The 5G communications and semiconductor industries are driving surging demand for high-purity TEA; domestic suppliers are rapidly gaining market share in these segments due to competitive pricing and cost advantages.
- High-value-added sectors—including premium cosmetics and green pesticides—are expected to witness faster TEA demand growth than traditional applications.

III. Cost and Profitability Analysis
1. Cost Structure:
- Ethylene oxide and ammonia account for over 60% of total production costs. Fluctuations in crude oil prices transmit through the ethylene–ethylene oxide value chain to impact TEA production costs.
- In 2025, ethylene oxide prices fluctuated by ±18.7%, directly affecting TEA production costs and gross margins.

2. Profitability:
- Intense price competition has compressed industry-wide profit margins. Companies must sustain profitability through technological upgrading (e.g., developing electronic-grade or pharmaceutical-grade TEA) and economies of scale.
- Firms with electronic-grade production capability, international certification (e.g., by major global OEMs), and vertically integrated ethylene oxide supply chains stand to capture above-average returns.

IV. Outlook and Forecast
1. Short-Term Price Trend:
- Oversupply and seasonal demand weakness may keep overall prices range-bound at relatively low levels; however, rising demand for high-purity TEA could support selective price increases.
- The average price in the first half of 2026 is projected to fluctuate within RMB 6,000–6,500 per metric ton, while high-purity grades may continue appreciating.

2. Long-Term Trend Forecast:
- Demand growth for high-purity (≥99%) TEA is expected to outpace that of standard-grade products; its market share is forecast to rise from ~30% currently to ~40%.
- Bio-based TEA is poised to gain market share, aligning with sustainability goals and ESG-driven procurement policies.
- The full-year 2026 national average price is projected at RMB 6,200–6,800 per metric ton, subject to periodic rebounds driven by supply-demand rebalancing and raw material cost volatility.

3. Key Risk Factors:
- Overcapacity: Concentrated commissioning of new capacity may trigger another round of aggressive price competition.
- Substitute Competition: Other ethanolamine derivatives—such as monoethanolamine (MEA) and diethanolamine (DEA)—may partially displace TEA where cost advantages prevail.
- Trade Policy: Anti-dumping investigations or tariff adjustments could reshape import/export dynamics and intensify domestic competition.
- Environmental Regulations: Compliance with stringent environmental standards—e.g., EU REACH regulations—may raise operational and compliance costs for export-oriented manufacturers.