POK Commodity Market Intelligence Report (May 20–26, 2026)

I. Price Benchmark Data
1. Business Society Benchmark Price
- May 20, 2026: The benchmark price was not directly disclosed; however, the pricing model indicates influence from credit-term costs (K) and logistics, brand, and regional price differentials (C).
- May 21–26, 2026: The specific benchmark price was not disclosed for multiple consecutive days. Nevertheless, it is emphasized that the pricing model is dynamically adjusted based on big-data analytics to reflect real-time market supply-demand conditions and cost fluctuations.

2. Historical Price Trends
- October 20–26, 2025: The benchmark price remained stable with no significant volatility, indicating short-term market supply-demand equilibrium.
- January–May 2026: Tendering activities were frequent (e.g., projects launched on January 16, 17, and 21; February 28; and April 28), reflecting growing downstream demand—particularly in engineering plastics and packaging materials—though this did not trigger substantial price increases.

II. Market Driver Analysis
1. Upstream Cost Factors
- Carbon Monoxide Supply: As a key raw material for POK (polyketone), carbon monoxide supply may face constraints due to tightening global industrial emission policies—including the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and China’s “Dual Carbon” goals—potentially elevating production costs.
- Energy Prices: Crude oil price fluctuations (e.g., potential impact of U.S. Q1 GDP data released on May 28 on USD exchange rates, thereby affecting energy costs) indirectly transmit to POK pricing; however, no clear correlation has yet emerged.

2. Downstream Demand Factors
- Engineering Plastics Sector: Leveraging its high strength and wear resistance, POK is increasingly replacing conventional materials (e.g., PA, POM) in automotive components (e.g., gears, bearings) and electronic/electrical applications (e.g., connectors), driving steady demand growth.
- Packaging Materials Sector: Owing to its excellent barrier properties, POK is well-suited for food packaging and pharmaceutical containers. Global plastic bans are accelerating its adoption potential.
- Emerging Applications: Rising performance requirements in 5G base stations and battery housings for new-energy vehicles are gradually increasing POK’s penetration rate.

3. Industry Policies and Key Events
- 6th Offshore Wind Power Innovation & Development Conference (May 26, Nanjing): The conference unveiled the “15th Five-Year Plan” offshore wind project pipeline (estimated 50–80 GW), advancing commercialization of deep-sea floating wind technology. Given POK’s corrosion resistance and fatigue resistance, it holds promise for applications in wind turbine blades and cable sheaths—supporting long-term demand.
- Meta Annual Shareholders’ Meeting (May 27): Meta announced planned AI-related capital expenditures of USD 10–12 billion for the year, focusing on GPU procurement and custom chip development. Expansion of the AI computing infrastructure ecosystem indirectly boosts POK demand—for example, in data center cooling systems and server brackets.
- ChangXin Technology’s Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) IPO Review (May 27): If ChangXin successfully lists, it will accelerate DRAM chip localization in China, stimulating demand for semiconductor packaging materials. POK—valued for its low moisture absorption and high dimensional stability—is suitable for chip carrier tapes and trays, potentially receiving demand support.

III. Price Forecast and Risk Alerts
1. Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Price Trend: Expected to remain stable, with benchmark price fluctuations ≤2%. Reason: Upstream raw material supply remains unaffected by policy changes for now, and downstream demand consists primarily of essential procurement without sudden supply-demand imbalances.
- Key Risks:
- Release of U.S. Q1 GDP Revised Estimate (May 28): If the figure falls below –0.2%, global risk-aversion sentiment may intensify, pressuring industrial commodity prices—including POK.
- Maiden Launch of Galaxy Space’s “Zhishenxing-1” Rocket (May 30): A successful launch could boost demand for high-performance materials in aerospace applications, potentially benefiting POK via substitution effects—but short-term impact remains limited.

2. Medium Term (1–3 Months)
- Price Trend: Moderate upward movement expected, with benchmark price rising 3%–5%. Reasons:
- Accelerated implementation of offshore wind projects, increasing POK’s share in wind energy applications.
- Capital expenditure expansion by Meta and ChangXin Technology, stimulating related industrial chain demand.
- Key Risks:
- Escalation of U.S.–China semiconductor tensions: Additional U.S. export restrictions targeting equipment suppliers to ChangXin Technology could delay DRAM capacity ramp-up, indirectly dampening POK demand.
- Compliance Costs under the EU Digital Markets Act (DMA): Should Meta’s advertising revenue growth decelerate, resulting in reduced AI capex, POK demand could weaken.

3. Long Term (6–12 Months)
- Price Trend: Clear upward trajectory, with benchmark price projected to rise 8%–10%. Reasons:
- Global aliphatic polyketone market size is forecast to grow from USD 142 million in 2025 to USD 286 million by 2032, representing a CAGR of 10.7%; POK, as the core product, benefits from sustained demand growth.
- China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” promotes domestic substitution in new energy and semiconductor sectors, accelerating POK’s replacement of traditional engineering plastics.
- Key Risks:
- Easing of global GPU supply bottlenecks: Higher capital expenditure efficiency among firms like Meta may reduce demand for auxiliary materials such as POK.
- Suspension of Iranian steel exports (through May 30): Extension of this suspension could elevate global steel prices, indirectly raising POK production costs.