Polycarbonate (PC) Market Dynamics Report

I. Price Trends
- Spot Price: As of May 26, 2026, the spot price for PC stood at RMB 16,400 per metric ton, rising by RMB 66.67/ton (0.41%) from the previous day. Over the past week, prices increased cumulatively by RMB 33.33/ton (0.20%); over the past month, the cumulative increase amounted to RMB 266.67/ton (1.65%).
- Index Performance: According to the Binsuo.com PC Commodity Index, the index remained unchanged at 68.77 during the period from May 18 to May 24, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 26.30% year-to-date.

II. Supply-Demand Landscape
- Import Situation:
- In April 2026, China’s total import volume of primary-form polycarbonate reached 66,400 metric tons, down 20.65% month-on-month, indicating a contraction in domestic supply.
- In March 2026, imports surged to 83,700 metric tons, up 57.58% month-on-month—primarily driven by sharp increases in domestic bisphenol-A (BPA) prices and tight spot availability, prompting downstream enterprises to seek stable supplies overseas.
- Export Situation:
- In April 2026, exports totaled 63,000 metric tons, up 20.16% month-on-month, reflecting robust external demand.
- In March 2026, exports reached 52,500 metric tons, up 48.00% month-on-month; Q1 2026 cumulative exports amounted to 125,300 metric tons, showing a steady monthly growth trend.
- Downstream Demand:
- Electronics & Electrical Appliances: Increased shipment volumes by PC manufacturers such as Lenovo, coupled with growing demand for high-end laptop casings driven by the AI PC concept, are elevating requirements for premium PC materials.
- New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): Rising delivery volumes by automakers including Li Auto are boosting demand for PC/ABS alloys used in instrument panels and interior components.
- Industrial & Service Robots: Companies such as Zhiyuan General are advancing into mass-production validation phases, driving demand for specialty modified PC in precision parts and sensor housings.
- Photovoltaics (PV): Steady demand persists for long-term weather-resistant PC sheets used in PV junction box housings, connectors, and lightweight component backsheet encapsulation.

III. Cost Drivers
- Bisphenol-A (BPA) Price: In March 2026, domestic BPA prices soared from RMB 8,070/ton at the beginning of the month to RMB 12,360/ton—a 53.16% increase—and stabilized near RMB 11,520/ton by month-end. Accounting for over 70% of total PC production cost, BPA’s extreme volatility has directly elevated PC manufacturing costs.
- Crude Oil Price: In March 2026, international crude oil prices breached USD 110/barrel, increasing input costs for phenol and acetone, further intensifying cost pressure on PC production.

IV. Market Analysis & Assessment
- Improving Supply-Demand Balance: The month-on-month decline in April imports and concurrent export growth signal tightening domestic supply, while downstream demand continues recovering—contributing to a marginally improved supply-demand balance and providing supportive momentum for PC spot prices.
- Strong Cost Support: Sustained high prices for BPA and crude oil keep PC production costs elevated, reinforcing producers’ pricing discipline and limiting downside price risk.
- Resilient Downstream Demand: Robust and structurally growing demand across electronics & electrical appliances, NEVs, robotics, and PV sectors—especially for high-performance specialty PC grades—provides solid fundamental support for prices.

V. Outlook & Forecast
- Short-Term Price Trend: Supported by improving supply-demand fundamentals and strong cost underpinnings, PC spot prices are expected to remain range-bound with an upward bias in the near term; however, gains may moderate due to limited downstream tolerance for elevated raw material pricing.
- Medium- to Long-Term Trend: With global manufacturing PMI consistently remaining in expansion territory, downstream demand is anticipated to sustain growth. Meanwhile, gradual ramp-up of domestic PC capacity and rising self-sufficiency rates may help stabilize price volatility over time—though premium specialty PC grades are expected to retain strong pricing power.
- Risk Alerts: Key risks warranting close monitoring include geopolitical developments in the Middle East affecting crude oil and shipping costs, as well as shifts in domestic BPA supply-demand dynamics and their pass-through impact on PC production costs.