Coking Coal Market Dynamics Report – Recent Commodity Market Intelligence

I. Price Trends
- Domestic Market:
- As of May 25, 2026, the coking coal market in Southwest China showed strength: major mines in Guizhou implemented broad-based monthly price increases across coal grades. Regional mainstream coal mines maintained normal operations; however, output at some mines remained suboptimal due to tightened safety supervision, limiting near-term production growth. Coking coal supply remains tight, and private mines’ quotations remain firm.
- In Hebei Province, coking coal prices were weak but stable. Mainstream mines continued normal production, with inventories at normal levels. Meanwhile, Shanxi’s safety situation escalated, resulting in reduced coking coal output; short-term supply-demand imbalance has triggered urgent inventory replenishment by end-user coke producers.
- In Northeast China, coking coal prices held steady. Mainstream mines operated normally, while downstream coke plants maintained high operating rates and held inventories at mid-to-low but normal levels.
- In East China, coking coal prices remained stable. Most regional mines operated normally, with smooth sales and no inventory pressure—providing underlying support for relatively strong pricing.
- In Northwest China, coking coal prices rose, driven by reduced output from Shanxi (due to intensified safety inspections) and urgent procurement by coke plants. Many mines suspended sales (“closed their books”) and adopted a selective-selling stance. Some mine ex-works prices increased by over RMB 100/ton.
- On May 20, coking coal prices declined in Yaodu District, Linfen City: high-sulfur main coking coal was auctioned at a starting bid of RMB 1,260/ton (35,000 tons offered), with all lots sold at the reserve price. In Anze County, Linfen, prices fell by RMB 20/ton; low-sulfur main coking coal clean coal ex-works price stood at RMB 1,600/ton (cash payment, tax-inclusive).
- On May 19, online auction prices for coking coal in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, edged down slightly: low-sulfur lean-main coking coal averaged RMB 1,553/ton. In Panzhou, Liupanshui City, major mines raised monthly prices for low-sulfur main coking coal by RMB 60/ton, effective at RMB 1,650–1,660/ton.
- On May 14, a leading coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, held a coking clean coal auction: high-ash, low-volatility fat coal started at RMB 1,230/ton and sold for RMB 1,290/ton.
- On May 26, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) coking coal futures benchmark contract surged 6.05%, closing at RMB 1,271.5/ton.

- Import Market:
- Imported Mongolian coking coal remained stable with a slight upward bias. Cross-border truck traffic for Mongolian coal significantly contracted during the May Day holiday period. Australian premium low-volatility coking coal CFR prices held steady at USD 218–219/wet ton, with no notable fluctuations in international supply.
- On May 20, coking coal prices rose in Aksu: gas-origin raw coal at RMB 520/ton; 1/3 coking raw coal at RMB 630/ton; main coking raw coal at RMB 690/ton; and lean clean coal at RMB 590/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Domestic coal mine production remains generally high, though operating rates in key producing areas—especially Shanxi—have declined, reflecting ongoing constraints on output stemming from intensified safety inspections.
- The import market remains stable: Mongolian coal imports are steady with a slight upward bias, though supply volumes were reduced due to the May Day holiday. Australian coking coal prices remain unchanged.

- Demand Side:
- Steel mills’ hot metal output remains robust, sustaining rigid downstream demand. Total inventories at independent coke plants rose modestly, indicating strengthened restocking intent. Inventories at 247 steel mills declined slightly, suggesting accelerated consumption at the end-user level.
- Coke producers have initiated the third round of price hikes targeting steel mills. Accordingly, coking coal prices are expected to continue rising moderately.

III. Inventory Changes
- Total inventories at independent coke plants increased modestly, signaling enhanced restocking willingness.
- Inventories at 247 steel mills decreased slightly, indicating accelerated end-user consumption.
- Port inventories remain relatively high, though incoming shipments show divergence; overall trading sentiment remains muted.

IV. Analysis & Outlook
- Short-Term Outlook:
- The coking coal market is expected to exhibit a volatile yet generally strengthening trend in the near term, with upward shifts in price benchmarks across coal grades—but with slowing momentum compared to previous periods. Notably, low-sulfur main coking coal prices posted significant gains, underscoring persistent rigid procurement demand.
- Supply-side constraints—primarily from ongoing safety inspections—continue to limit output growth, while stable demand—supported by high iron-making output at steel mills—underpins price resilience.

- Medium-Term Outlook:
- With safety inspections likely to persist, upstream production capacity expansion remains limited. Meanwhile, demand remains stable amid sustained high operating rates at steel mills—resulting in balanced dual growth in both supply and demand, with no pronounced fundamental imbalances.
- Key watchpoints include evolving coal mine safety policies and changes in imported coal arrivals—both critical to sustaining elevated price levels. Overall, the coking coal market is undergoing a moderate recovery characterized by structural resilience, albeit with diminishing upside momentum.

V. Forecast
- Price Forecast:
- Coking coal prices in May are expected to follow a “high-then-stable” trajectory, with narrowing gains. Short-term prices will remain resilient amid concurrent supply-demand growth, exhibiting an upward-biased volatility. Mid-term price direction hinges critically on policy developments and import volumes.
- Should coal mine safety regulations remain stringent—limiting production growth—while demand stays stable, coking coal prices may continue rising. Conversely, regulatory easing or a substantial surge in imports could trigger downward price pressure.

- Market Trend:
- The coking coal market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand equilibrium, with a gradual upward shift in the price benchmark. In the longer term, sustained domestic policy support and continuous optimization of China’s energy structure will steer the coking coal market toward healthier, more stable development.