Naphthalene Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast (May 27, 2026)

I. Core Price Data
| Date | Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | Daily Change | Year-to-Date Low | Year-to-Date High | Median | Average | Price Position within YTD Range |
|------------|---------------------------|--------------|------------------|--------------------|--------|---------|-------------------------------|
| 2026-05-26 | 6,800.00 | 0.00% | 6,550.00 | 7,500.00 | 7,025 | 7,051.09 | Mid-to-Low |
| 2026-05-21 | 6,800.00 | 0.00% | 6,550.00 | 7,500.00 | 7,025 | 7,060.66 | Mid-to-Low |
| 2026-05-18 | 6,800.00 | 0.00% | 6,550.00 | 7,500.00 | 7,025 | — | Mid-to-Low |

Key Characteristics:
1. Prices have remained stable at CNY 6,800/ton for ten consecutive days. The year-to-date price range is CNY 6,550–7,500/ton; the current price is CNY 700/ton below the YTD high and CNY 250/ton above the YTD low.
2. The average price in May 2026 is CNY 7,053.01/ton—significantly lower than the same period in 2025 (historical comparison required for confirmation).

II. Market Supply-Demand Dynamics
Supply Side
1. Capacity Distribution:
– China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and the United States are the world’s major methanol supply markets (methanol being a key raw material for refined naphthalene). Global methanol capacity reached 184 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5%.
– Domestic enterprise quotations vary significantly: A company in Zibo, Shandong quotes CNY 7,600/ton (minimum order: ≥1 ton), whereas Shandong Xinheng Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes as low as CNY 7,000/ton—reflecting intense regional supply-side competition.

2. Technological Breakthroughs:
– Donggeng Group’s 30,000-ton-per-year refined naphthalene project has increased product purity from 95% to 99.5%, enhancing supply capability for premium markets—including pharmaceuticals and electronics—where ultra-high purity is critical.

Demand Side
1. Downstream Applications:
– Major consumption sectors include dyes, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, rubber, and fragrances.
– Case Study – Brazil Market: In 2023, China exported 1,001.4 tons of refined naphthalene to Brazil (4.1% of total Chinese exports), driven by strong demand from Brazil’s agricultural sector—where pesticide usage reached 800,700 tons in 2022, accounting for 22.12% of global consumption.

2. Domestic Demand:
– China’s refined naphthalene demand totaled 678,000 tons in 2025 (42.3% of global demand); it is projected to reach 898,000 tons by 2030 (47.8% of global demand), growing at a CAGR of 6.5%—substantially outpacing the global average CAGR of 3.5%.

III. Key Driving Factors Analysis
Bullish Factors
1. Policy Support: A comprehensive domestic policy framework for the refined naphthalene industry, coupled with rising patent filings, is accelerating technological iteration and capacity expansion.
2. Downstream Growth: Sustained demand growth across pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and rubber sectors—especially for high-purity products—is driving market upgrading.
3. Export Opportunities: Emerging markets such as Brazil remain heavily import-dependent; Chinese products offer compelling cost-performance advantages, suggesting further gains in export share.

Bearish Factors
1. Raw Material Volatility: Methanol and other feedstock prices are sensitive to international energy markets, potentially transmitting cost pressures downstream to refined naphthalene.
2. Environmental Regulatory Pressure: As a highly polluting industry, naphthalene production faces increasingly stringent environmental regulations, which may constrain output from smaller, less-compliant enterprises.
3. International Competition: Low-cost producers in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and elsewhere could initiate price wars, undermining Chinese market competitiveness.

IV. Price Forecast & Risk Alert
Short-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
– Price Range: CNY 6,700–7,000/ton.
– Supporting Factors: Stable domestic demand, growing export orders, and low enterprise inventory levels.
– Constraining Factors: Methanol price volatility and potential summer-heat-related operational disruptions in certain regions.

Long-Term Forecast (1–3 Years)
– Price Trend: Moderate upward trajectory; prices may exceed CNY 7,200/ton in 2027.
– Key Drivers:
1. Domestic demand growth (CAGR 6.5%) will gradually widen the supply-demand gap.
2. Rising technical barriers for high-purity products enhance pricing power.
3. Deepening import dependency in emerging markets—including Brazil and India—will sustain external demand.

Risk Alerts
1. Geopolitical Conflicts: Disruptions to raw material transportation and trade routes.
2. Policy Volatility: Sudden changes in environmental production curbs or export tax rebate policies may destabilize the market.
3. Substitute Threats: Commercialization of bio-based naphthalene alternatives could fundamentally disrupt the conventional market landscape.