Acrylamide Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Recent Market Price Dynamics
1. East China Market
- May 12–15, 2026: Market negotiation prices remained stable within the range of RMB 13,000–13,800 per metric ton. Suppliers adjusted quotations flexibly based on order volume and payment terms; the all-inclusive tax-inclusive short-haul delivery price for full-truckload shipments was approximately RMB 13,100 per metric ton.
- May 21: Low-price fire-sale activity emerged in certain regions—for example, Wuhan City, Hubei Province, reported quotations as low as RMB 8,900 per metric ton for 99% purity product. However, mainstream market prices remained above RMB 13,000 per metric ton, highlighting regional supply-demand imbalances.

2. Shandong Market
- May 13: The market exhibited weak stability with reference prices at RMB 13,000–13,800 per metric ton, aligned with the East China market.
- May 21: Some enterprises reduced quotations due to inventory pressure—for instance, Zibo City offered 98% purity product at RMB 9,000 per metric ton—while high-end products (e.g., electronic-grade) maintained pricing resilience.

3. National Average Price Trend
- The national average price of polyacrylamide (a primary downstream product of acrylamide) declined gradually from RMB 13,370 per metric ton on April 28, 2026, to RMB 13,130 per metric ton on May 9, reflecting downstream demand softness transmitting pressure upstream to raw material markets.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
1. Cost-Side Support
- Acrylonitrile—the core raw material for acrylamide production—accounts for 50%–70% of total production costs. China’s acrylonitrile capacity reached 4.839 million tons in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year increase. However, in Q2 2026, some integrated facilities operated at full capacity, coupled with environmental regulatory restrictions on production, resulting in temporary tightening of raw material supply and persistent cost pressure.

2. Supply-Demand Landscape
- Supply: Domestic acrylamide capacity stands at approximately 870,000 tons/year, with Shandong Province accounting for over 60%. Leading enterprises—including NorBio (300,000 tons/year) and Ruihai New Materials (160,000 tons/year)—dominate the market. In 2026, Jiangsu Fumiao Technology commissioned a new 50,000-ton/year electronic-grade production line, expanding high-end capacity.
- Demand: Demand totaled 685,000 tons in 2025 and is projected to rise to 720,000 tons in 2026, driven primarily by wastewater treatment, oilfield exploitation, and emerging applications in new energy sectors (e.g., battery separator coating materials). However, procurement rhythms in traditional end-use segments (e.g., papermaking, mining) have become more rationalized, leading to moderated demand growth.

3. Policy and Industry Trends
- The National Development and Reform Commission’s “Implementation Plan for the Water Efficiency Leader Program for Key Water-Using Enterprises (2025–2027)” is stimulating demand growth in industrial water treatment.
- Industrialization of acrylamide derivatives for new-energy battery separator coating is accelerating; the collaborative project between CATL and Shandong Lianhong New Materials is expected to generate kiloton-scale procurement orders within the year, emerging as a key growth driver.

III. Market Contradictions
1. Regional Price Divergence: While mainstream prices remain stable in East China and Shandong, low-price fire sales have occurred in Hubei and Guangdong provinces—reflecting inventory pressures among SMEs and regional supply-demand imbalances.
2. Structural Imbalance: Overcapacity persists in low-end product segments, whereas high-end products (e.g., electronic-grade, medical-grade) remain heavily import-dependent; the domestic import substitution rate stood below 28% in 2025, indicating significant technological upgrading potential.
3. Weakening Seasonality in Demand: The industry’s Q4 2025 output value accounted for only 19.22% of annual output—significantly lower than quarterly averages in the first three quarters—suggesting diminishing traditional seasonal demand patterns and a trend toward smoother operational rhythms.

IV. Outlook (June–December 2026)
1. Price Trend
- Short Term (June–August): Pressured by soft downstream demand and regional fire-sale activity, mainstream market prices may decline modestly to RMB 12,800–13,500 per metric ton; however, prices for high-end products (e.g., electronic-grade) are expected to remain stable, supported by newly commissioned capacity.
- Medium-to-Long Term (September–December): With growing demand from new-energy applications and sustained tightening of environmental regulations, prices are projected to rebound to RMB 13,500–14,200 per metric ton; the full-year average price is forecast to rise 2.3% year-on-year.

2. Supply-Demand Evolution
- Supply: Capacity utilization rates among leading enterprises are expected to improve; SMEs may exit the market under environmental compliance pressure, further consolidating industry concentration (top five players’ combined capacity share projected at 68.4%).
- Demand: New-energy sector demand is anticipated to account for 15% of total consumption; traditional end-uses (wastewater treatment, oilfield exploitation) will maintain steady growth, yielding an overall annual demand growth rate of ~5%.

3. Industry Risks
- Acrylonitrile price volatility risk: Should acrylonitrile capacity expansion fall short of expectations, upstream cost pressure could push up acrylamide prices.
- Intensifying export competition: Exports are projected to represent 18.6% of total output in 2026, yet rising trade barriers in international markets—particularly in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East—warrant close monitoring of evolving policy developments.

V. Strategic Recommendations
1. Producers: Optimize capacity structure by increasing R&D investment in high-end products (e.g., electronic-grade, medical-grade); strengthen long-term partnerships with new-energy enterprises to secure stable order pipelines.
2. Traders: Monitor inter-regional price spreads to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities between East China/Shandong and Hubei/Guangdong; exercise caution in inventory management to mitigate exposure to fire-sale risks.
3. Downstream Users: Procure strategically during price troughs (e.g., below RMB 12,800 per metric ton) to hedge against potential Q4 price rebounds; prioritize sourcing from leading domestic producers to ensure supply chain reliability.