Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Carboxyl-Terminated Polybutadiene (CTPB) Liquid Rubber

I. Market Intelligence

Price Dynamics
As of May 22, 2026, no specific benchmark price data for carboxyl-terminated polybutadiene (CTPB) liquid rubber is available; however, price trends of related rubber products can serve as reference. Recently, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber (BR) has fluctuated frequently: according to Binsu Network, its benchmark price stood at RMB 15,780.00 per ton on May 14, rose to RMB 15,870.00 per ton on May 18, declined slightly to RMB 15,840.00 per ton on May 21, and further eased to RMB 15,820.00 per ton on May 22—indicating overall narrow-range volatility.

Supply-Demand Situation
1. Supply Side: Approximately six domestic enterprises possess large-scale production capacity for CTPB liquid rubber, with a combined annual capacity of about 28,000 tons—representing a ~65% increase over 2020 levels and an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%. Major producers include Sinopec’s Yanshan Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, as well as the Northern Materials Science and Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. under China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO). Together, these three account for over 70% of total national capacity. Yanshan Petrochemical’s annual capacity reaches 10,000 tons, with product purity exceeding 99.5% and adjustable carboxyl group content ranging from 0.5% to 2.5%. Lanzhou Petrochemical commissioned a 6,000-ton-per-year production line in Lanzhou, Gansu Province; this facility achieved full-capacity operation in 2023, with a capacity utilization rate of 92%.
2. Demand Side: Driven by continuous expansion across downstream application sectors—including national defense and military equipment, aerospace, high-performance sealing materials, and specialty coatings—the domestic market size for CTPB liquid rubber is projected to reach approximately RMB 1.28 billion in 2025, representing a ~65% increase compared to 2020 and sustaining a CAGR of around 10.5%. In 2026, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) production is forecast at 12.5 million units; assuming an average usage of 0.85 kg of liquid rubber per vehicle, NEVs alone will generate over 10,000 tons of inflexible demand.

Import-Export Situation
In 2025, China’s import value of diene-based liquid rubbers totaled RMB 374 million, down 4.2% year-on-year—primarily attributable to price hikes imposed by major overseas suppliers (Japan’s JSR Corporation, Germany’s LANXESS AG, and U.S.-based Kraton Corporation) in the Far East region due to rising energy costs, which eroded the cost-effectiveness of mid-tier grades. Meanwhile, export value reached RMB 189 million, up 11.6% YoY, with primary destinations concentrated in Southeast Asia and Europe.

II. Analysis and Judgment

Price Trend Analysis
Recent narrow-range fluctuations in cis-BR prices reflect relatively stable overall supply-demand fundamentals in the rubber market—but also signal underlying pricing pressure. As a specialty elastomer, CTPB liquid rubber pricing is influenced by multiple factors, including raw material costs, manufacturing processes, supply-demand dynamics, and end-use sector requirements. Owing to its critical applications in high-end sectors, its pricing remains comparatively resilient—yet still subject to moderate influence from broader rubber commodity price movements.

Supply-Demand Analysis
On the supply side, sustained domestic capacity expansion and dominance by leading enterprises contribute to supply stability. On the demand side, rapidly expanding downstream applications—particularly in new energy vehicles, national defense/military systems, and aerospace—offer substantial market growth potential. However, challenges such as inconsistent batch-to-batch quality in high-end grades may constrain effective and reliable supply delivery.

Competitive Landscape Analysis
The domestic CTPB liquid rubber market exhibits a ‘one-dominant, two-strong, multiple-specialized’ competitive structure: Sinopec’s Balin Petrochemical holds a leading position, while Shandong Daown Group and Zhejiang Qinghong New Materials Co., Ltd. also demonstrate strong competitiveness. Firms have differentiated themselves across technology, product offerings, and market positioning—for example, Balin Petrochemical leverages integrated styrene-butadiene process control capabilities; Daown Group employs dynamic vulcanization composite technologies to secure advantages in automotive NVH (noise, vibration, harshness) components; and Qinghong New Materials utilizes acrylic ester modification technology to penetrate the semiconductor packaging segment requiring ultra-low-volatility liquid rubber.

III. Forecast

Price Forecast
Over the near term, CTPB liquid rubber prices are expected to remain relatively stable, though modest adjustments may occur in response to butadiene feedstock price volatility and shifting supply-demand balances. With continued downstream application diversification and steady demand growth, prices are likely to exhibit a mild upward trend overall.

Supply-Demand Forecast
1. Supply Side: Supported by national policy incentives for advanced new materials and ongoing enterprise-driven technological innovation, domestic CTPB liquid rubber production capacity is poised for further expansion. By 2030, China’s domestic demand is projected to exceed 32,000 tons. To meet this demand, manufacturers may undertake capacity expansions or technical upgrades to enhance production efficiency and product quality.
2. Demand Side: Rapid development in national defense/military, aerospace, and new energy vehicle sectors will continue to drive robust demand growth for CTPB liquid rubber. Specifically within the NEV sector, escalating production volumes will sustain strong consumption growth. Additionally, civilian markets—including electronic encapsulation, adhesives, and specialty coatings—will expand progressively, providing fresh impetus for overall demand growth.

Competitive Landscape Forecast
Competition within the CTPB liquid rubber industry is expected to intensify further. Competitive advantage will increasingly hinge not only on production scale and market share, but more critically on technological innovation, product quality, and service capability. Enterprises possessing independent intellectual property rights, core technologies, and vertically integrated industrial chains will gain strategic advantages, potentially accelerating industry consolidation and raising concentration ratios. Simultaneously, as market demands grow increasingly diversified and customized, firms must continuously develop novel products and explore emerging application domains to satisfy evolving customer needs.