Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence for Silica (White Carbon Black)

I. Price Trends
1. National Mainstream Market Average Price
- As of May 22, 2026, the national mainstream market average price for silica stood at RMB 8,940 per ton, remaining unchanged for seven consecutive days—indicating short-term price stability.
- According to the Business Network’s benchmark price, the silica price on May 25 was RMB 6,066.67 per ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and positioned at the mid-to-upper level of its annual range (annual fluctuation: RMB 5,833.33–6,166.67 per ton).

2. Regional and Segment-Specific Prices
- Precipitated Silica:
- Rubber-grade precipitated silica in Shandong and Fujian provinces is priced between RMB 5,000–6,500 per ton; feed-grade specialty products are quoted as low as RMB 5,700 per ton (Jinan Jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd., May 26).
- Some enterprises—including Zhuzhou Xinglong and Shandong Hongxing—have issued price bulletins, though specific data remain undisclosed.
- Fumed Silica:
- Products with a specific surface area of 200 m2/g are priced between RMB 21,000–36,000 per ton. The high-end segment faces tight supply-demand conditions, sustaining elevated pricing.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Domestic production capacity is expanding steadily; however, industry-wide operating rates remain low (the carbon black industry’s overall operating rate has fallen below 70%). Several manufacturers have suspended operations for environmental compliance upgrades or due to losses.
- Emerging technologies—such as rice husk-based silica production—are gradually gaining traction, potentially reducing carbon footprint by approximately 140%; yet large-scale substitution effects have not yet materialized.

2. Demand Side
- Tire Industry: Rising penetration of new-energy vehicles and eco-friendly tires is driving robust demand for highly dispersible silica. In 2023, silica consumption in tires reached 470,000 tons, registering the highest year-on-year growth rate among end-use sectors.
- Non-Tire Applications: Steady demand growth continues in coatings, inks, and adhesives; meanwhile, demand for high-purity silica in food, pharmaceuticals, and toothpaste segments is rising (e.g., a leading toothpaste brand boosted its market share via customized silica formulations).

III. Cost and Profitability
1. Raw Material Prices
- Primary raw materials for silica include petroleum- and natural gas-derived chemicals (e.g., sodium silicate). International crude oil price volatility directly impacts production costs. Recently, crude oil prices have traded within a narrow range, temporarily easing cost pressures.
2. Industry Profitability
- Margins for conventional silica products remain slim; by contrast, premium products (e.g., fumed silica and highly dispersible grades) enjoy higher gross margins. However, technological barriers constrain domestic capacity expansion in these high-value segments.

IV. Competitive Landscape
1. Domestic Market Structure
- Market concentration remains low. Intense homogenized competition prevails in the low-end segment, frequently triggering price wars. High-end markets still rely heavily on imports (e.g., imported conductive carbon black averages RMB 13,862.8 per ton).
- Leading enterprises are enhancing resilience through vertical integration—for example, producing sodium silicate in-house—to reduce costs and strengthen risk mitigation capabilities.

2. International Competition
- U.S. and German firms dominate the high-end global market. Chinese companies are establishing production bases in Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam and Thailand) to circumvent trade barriers and expand exports (carbon black exports rose 22.52% year-on-year in 2025).

Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Price Trend
- Amid ongoing supply-demand balancing, silica prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. Precipitated silica pricing will be supported by seasonal tire demand, limiting volatility; fumed silica prices will stay elevated due to inelastic demand in high-end applications.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Trends
- Technology-Driven Growth: Green manufacturing (e.g., low-carbon processes) and domestic substitution of high-end products will become core growth drivers. Technologically advanced enterprises are poised to gain market share.
- Policy Impacts: Stricter environmental regulations will accelerate the exit of small-scale, inefficient producers, raising industry concentration. Continued policy support for new-energy vehicles will sustain strong demand for tire-grade silica.
- Cost Pressures: A significant surge in international oil prices may eventually be passed through to silica pricing. However, ongoing R&D into alternative feedstocks (e.g., biomass-derived precursors) could partially offset such risks.

Forecast
1. Price Range
- In Q3 2026, mainstream precipitated silica prices are projected to range between RMB 5,800–6,500 per ton, while fumed silica prices are expected to remain above RMB 20,000 per ton.
2. Demand Structure
- The tire sector’s share of total silica demand is forecast to rise further, exceeding 55%. Although non-tire demand growth may moderate, structural upgrading will continue—with increasing proportion of high-value-added products.
3. Industry Consolidation
- Over the next two years, the domestic silica market is expected to consolidate into 3–5 dominant players through mergers and acquisitions, while smaller enterprises shift toward niche, differentiated segments (e.g., feed-grade or pharmaceutical-grade silica).