Polyethylene Glycol (PEG) Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends
1. Ethylene Glycol (EG) Spot and Futures Prices
- On May 22, 2026, the basis of the EG front-month futures contract reached a maximum of RMB 386.33/ton, a minimum of -RMB 320.33/ton, and an average of RMB 106.44/ton.
- On May 22, the benchmark EG spot price stood at RMB 5,008.33/ton, down RMB 49.42/ton from the previous day; the oil-based EG market average price was RMB 4,903.33/ton, down 4.88% from April 30.
- On May 22, the EG front-month futures contract closed at RMB 4,587/ton, falling 3.19% on the day and hitting a low of RMB 4,483/ton; port spot prices dropped 3.88% daily, while domestic truck-loading EG spot prices declined 2.1%.

2. Polyethylene Glycol Powder Prices
- As of April 21, 2026, the national mainstream market average price for PEG powder remained stable in the range of RMB 100,250–101,250/ton; on April 7, prices rose by RMB 100/ton (a 1% increase) in a single day, with no further changes thereafter.
- In Jinan City, Shandong Province: domestic PEG products with molecular weights of 2,000–10,000 were quoted at RMB 11,000/ton; PEG 8,000 powder at RMB 9,200/ton.
- In Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province: domestic PEG products with molecular weights of 2,000–10,000 were quoted at RMB 7,900/ton.
- In Shanghai: imported high-purity PEG products were quoted at RMB 9,000/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Ethylene Glycol: As of May 21, 2026, the total EG inventory at major East China ports amounted to 683,000 tons—down 89,400 tons from April 30, but down 270,000 tons from March 30—indicating a decelerating pace of inventory drawdown.
- Polyethylene Glycol: Domestic PEG production capacity is concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. Supply of standard-grade products is ample; however, high-end pharmaceutical-grade PEG remains heavily import-dependent, with domestic self-sufficiency below 30%.
- Coal-based Ethylene Glycol: Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable with slight weakness. Profitability of coal-based EG has recovered, and plant operating rates have stayed above 60%. Facilities such as Yulin Chemical and Qianxi Coal Chemical are operating at full capacity, continuously increasing supply.

2. Demand Side
- Ethylene Glycol: In May, the average operating rate of domestic polyester plants was only 75–77%, down 3–5 percentage points year-on-year, resulting in markedly weaker mandatory procurement demand for EG. Downstream textile weaving orders remain weak: Jiangsu-Zhejiang region weaving machine utilization stood at just 66%, with order patterns dominated by small-batch, fast-response orders. End-market inventories are high, prompting polyester producers to proactively reduce operating loads.
- Polyethylene Glycol: The personal care industry accounts for 40% of PEG demand, driving growth in high-end powdered products due to stringent requirements for particle size uniformity; the pharmaceutical sector accounts for 25% of demand, growing at 15.3% annually—but domestic technical barriers result in persistent supply shortages; the oilfield chemical sector accounts for 20% of demand, requiring high-temperature and high-salinity resistant products with purity exceeding 99%.

III. Key Market Drivers
1. Cost Factors
- EG prices are highly correlated with crude oil. On May 22, 2026, news that a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal draft was nearing finalization triggered a sharp decline in oil prices: Brent crude plummeted over 6% intraday from around USD 109/barrel, while WTI crude fell below the USD 100/barrel threshold—causing the cost-support foundation for EG to collapse.
- Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable with slight weakness, leading to softened costs for coal-based EG and sustaining high operating rates.

2. Policy & Trade Developments
- The anti-dumping duties imposed by the European Union in November 2021 on EG imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia will expire in November 2026. Review proceedings are expected between May and August 2026. Market consensus anticipates duty continuation, though specific tariff levels remain uncertain.
- Ongoing global trade frictions and European producers’ protectionist demands continue to distort the global EG supply-demand balance—particularly altering trade flows.

3. Industry Developments
- The active polyethylene glycol (PEG) market is expanding steadily: the global market reached USD 300 million in 2026 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.86% to USD 1.43 billion by 2033.
- China’s crude PEG industry has entered a stable expansion phase: the 2025 market size reached RMB 13.5 billion, representing a 12.5% year-on-year growth; the 2026 market size is forecast to reach RMB 15.188 billion.

IV. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term (1–3 months)
- Ethylene Glycol: Under pressure from collapsing cost support, supply-demand imbalance, and negative investor sentiment, EG prices are likely to remain weak in the near term. Close attention should be paid to crude oil volatility and downstream order developments.
- Polyethylene Glycol: Standard-grade product prices may fluctuate within a narrow range of RMB 6,500–7,500/ton; high-end products are expected to hold steady or rise modestly, supported by robust demand.

2. Medium-to-Long Term (6–12 months)
- Ethylene Glycol: With ongoing polyester capacity expansion and rising domestic EG self-sufficiency, the EG price center may gradually shift upward—though oversupply risks must be closely monitored.
- Polyethylene Glycol: Pharmaceutical-grade PEG holds immense potential in drug delivery systems; its market size in China is projected to exceed RMB 2 billion by 2030, pushing the price center for premium products higher. In contrast, standard-grade PEG faces downward pressure due to overcapacity.
- Industry Trends: Stricter environmental regulations will accelerate industry consolidation. Leading enterprises are expected to expand market share through mergers and acquisitions, while SMEs pivot toward niche segments (e.g., oilfield chemicals). Technological competition will focus on purity control, particle-size distribution, and customization capabilities—firms holding proprietary technologies will gain competitive advantage.