Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Di-n-octyl Adipate

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence

(A) Price Information
As of May 2026, the market price of di-n-octyl adipate has exhibited moderate volatility. Shandong Xinheng Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes a starting price of RMB 8,000 per metric ton (for order volumes ≥1 ton), with packaging in 190-kg drums. In the East China region, the price of adipic acid (≥99.7% purity, premium grade) remained stable at RMB 9,100 per metric ton during May 1–5, 2026. Shandong Haili’s premium-grade adipic acid (≥99.7% purity) traded within a range of RMB 8,050–8,100 per metric ton, while Hualu Heneng’s equivalent product ranged from RMB 8,433 to 8,833 per metric ton. As a key upstream raw material for di-n-octyl adipate, fluctuations in adipic acid prices directly impact the production cost of di-n-octyl adipate.

(B) Supply Situation
1. Domestic Capacity: By the end of 2025, China’s total adipic acid capacity stood at 4.45 million metric tons per year. East China accounted for approximately 450,000 metric tons/year, while North China contributed 1.036 million metric tons/year. In 2026, additional adipic acid production facilities are scheduled to commence operations—primarily in Zhejiang Province. As these new capacities gradually come online, downstream industries are also expected to add capacity, thereby absorbing part of the upstream supply increase. However, the specific impact of such new capacity on di-n-octyl adipate supply remains unclear; nonetheless, the overall supply environment may shift in response to upstream capacity changes.
2. Plant Utilization: In Q1 2026, adipic acid plant utilization rates followed a pattern of initial increase followed by slight decline, averaging 71.26%—up 13.93 percentage points year-on-year and 6.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In March, partial maintenance shutdowns at Henan Shenma’s facilities, reduced operating loads at Chongqing Huafeng’s Phase I plant and Tangshan Zhonghao’s facility led to a modest dip in utilization; nevertheless, overall rates remained elevated. Plant utilization levels directly influence adipic acid output and, consequently, raw material availability for di-n-octyl adipate producers.
3. Enterprise Inventory: As of Q1 2026, sampled enterprise inventories of adipic acid were generally at medium-to-low levels. By end-March, sampled enterprise inventory stood at approximately 8,500 metric tons—down 19,000 metric tons year-on-year and down 8,500 metric tons from end-December 2025. Pre-Spring Festival downstream stockpiling rapidly depleted factory inventories; post-Lantern Festival restocking by downstream enterprises, combined with sharp market price increases triggered by geopolitical tensions, led major downstream manufacturers to procure aggressively in March—keeping factory inventories at relatively low levels. Such low adipic acid inventories may impose procurement pressure on di-n-octyl adipate producers.

(C) Demand Situation
1. Downstream Industry Demand: Primary downstream applications of adipic acid include PA66 and PBAT. In Q1 2026, the PA66 market experienced significant volatility and a substantial upward trend, with prices rising by RMB 6,600 per metric ton—from a low of RMB 14,900 to a high of RMB 21,500 per metric ton. The domestic PBAT market demonstrated a relatively strong upward trend, with the East China average price reaching RMB 10,104 per metric ton. Nylon industry utilization remained comparatively high, with capacity utilization stabilizing near 70% by end-Q1—thereby reinforcing demand resilience for adipic acid in North China. Di-n-octyl adipate is widely applied in plastics, coatings, inks, and related fields; robust development in these downstream sectors provides supportive demand for di-n-octyl adipate.
2. Seasonal Factors: Demand typically weakens in Q2—the traditional off-season for downstream industries. However, in 2026, expanded consumer subsidy policies—including “trade-in” initiatives—and signs of stabilization in real estate sales have bolstered household confidence and could further revive domestic consumption, potentially exerting positive effects on di-n-octyl adipate demand.

(D) Import/Export Situation
Amid global market weakness, domestic enterprises are actively pursuing export opportunities to alleviate domestic supply pressure; export volumes are thus expected to grow. Concurrently, China’s self-sufficiency capability continues strengthening, suggesting import volumes may continue declining. While specific import/export data and trends for di-n-octyl adipate remain unavailable, evolving trade dynamics may nonetheless influence its domestic supply-demand balance and pricing.

II. Analysis and Judgment

(A) Cost Considerations
Adipic acid constitutes a critical raw material for di-n-octyl adipate; its price volatility significantly affects di-n-octyl adipate production costs. In Q1 2026, fluctuations in benzene prices influenced adipic acid production costs—and thereby adipic acid pricing. Although current adipic acid prices are relatively stable, uncertainty persists regarding future benzene prices. Should benzene prices rise further, adipic acid production costs will increase, pushing up adipic acid prices and subsequently exerting upward pressure on di-n-octyl adipate prices.

(B) Supply-Demand Balance
On the supply side, newly commissioned adipic acid capacities may expand market supply; however, enterprise inventories remain low, and the precise impact of new capacity on di-n-octyl adipate supply remains ambiguous. On the demand side, healthy growth in downstream sectors—particularly PA66 and PBAT—and high nylon industry utilization sustain adipic acid demand. Additionally, pro-consumption policies may stimulate domestic demand recovery, thereby boosting di-n-octyl adipate demand. Overall, the current supply-demand relationship appears relatively balanced. Nevertheless, if supply expansion outpaces demand growth, oversupply may emerge, exerting downward price pressure; conversely, stronger demand relative to supply could drive prices higher.

(C) Competitive Landscape
Continued expansion of China’s adipic acid industry capacity is likely to enhance industry concentration, further consolidating the market influence of leading enterprises. Within the di-n-octyl adipate segment, competition among producers may intensify, prompting firms to adopt strategies—including price reductions—to gain or retain market share—potentially imposing downward pressure on pricing.

III. Forecast

(A) Short-Term Outlook
Anticipated new capacity additions on the supply side and seasonal softness in downstream demand during Q2 may place modest downward pressure on adipic acid prices—transmitting to di-n-octyl adipate. However, given currently low enterprise inventories and lingering uncertainty around benzene prices, any price decline is expected to be limited. Thus, di-n-octyl adipate prices are projected to remain relatively stable or exhibit only minor fluctuations in the near term.

(B) Medium-Term Outlook
As Q2’s traditional off-season concludes, domestic demand is expected to gradually recover under the impetus of consumer subsidy policies and other supportive measures—bolstering demand for di-n-octyl adipate and supporting its pricing. Meanwhile, stable or rising benzene prices would elevate production costs, further contributing to upward pricing momentum. Accordingly, di-n-octyl adipate prices are anticipated to trend upward with moderate volatility over the medium term.

(C) Long-Term Outlook
As newly commissioned adipic acid capacities are progressively integrated into the market and downstream industries continue evolving, the supply-demand equilibrium for di-n-octyl adipate is expected to gradually stabilize. Prices will likely fluctuate around cost-based levels and reasonable profit margins. Should downstream demand for di-n-octyl adipate sustain growth while supply expands steadily, prices may experience mild upward movement; conversely, pronounced supply overcapacity could trigger downward price pressure.