Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast for Diethylene Glycol Monoethyl Ether

I. Price Dynamics
- Base Price: As of May 25, 2026, according to Shengyishe data, the base price for diethylene glycol monoethyl ether stands at RMB 11,725.00 per ton, representing a 1.44% increase from the beginning of May (May 1). The price remains at a relatively high level year-to-date (yearly low: RMB 10,771.43/ton; yearly high: RMB 12,216.67/ton).
- Regional Quotations:
- Jinan City, Shandong Province:
Shandong Yushuo Chemical: Tianyin and Yida brands (99% purity) at RMB 11,600/ton;
Shandong Shuojia Chemical: Tianyin brand (99% purity) at RMB 12,400/ton; Yida brand (99.9% purity) at RMB 12,410/ton;
Shandong Hanyue Chemical: Tianyin brand (99% purity) at RMB 12,000/ton; Yida brand (99.9% purity) at RMB 12,500/ton; domestic grade (99% purity) at RMB 12,500/ton.
- Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province: Domestic grade (99% purity), ex-factory price at RMB 13,000/ton.
- Zhejiang Province: Domestic grade (99.5% purity) market price at RMB 10,000/ton; Tianyin brand (99% purity) at RMB 13,000/ton; Yida brand (99.9% purity) at RMB 12,000/ton.
- Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province: Tianyin brand (99% purity) market price at RMB 9,000/ton; Jiangsu-branded product (99% purity) at RMB 9,000/ton.
- Premium Products: Jinan Jinrihe Chemical quotes Yida brand (99.9% purity, packaged in 200-kg drums) at RMB 14,500/ton.

II. Market Driving Factor Analysis
1. Cost Structure:
- Ethylene oxide prices remain stable at RMB 7,200/ton, up RMB 300/ton from the beginning of the year—pushing up production costs for diethylene glycol monoethyl ether by approximately RMB 200/ton.
- Coal prices are weak, expanding the cost advantage of coal-based production routes; gross margins for enterprises in Northwest China remain at 15–18%, while those for gas-based producers in East China have compressed to 8–10%.

2. Supply Side:
- No new production facilities commenced operations in Q1 2026; however, post-maintenance resumption of ethylene glycol units at Satellite Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical has led to a ~8% sequential increase in co-produced diethylene glycol monoethyl ether output.
- Yulong Petrochemical’s new 100,000-ton-per-year facility is scheduled to commence operations in Q3; its incremental supply may reach ~5%, though this may be partially offset by seasonal maintenance (July–August).

3. Demand Side:
- Traditional Applications: Water-based coatings now account for 42% of total coating production, driving demand for environmentally friendly solvents; however, coating output growth in March YoY was only +2.1%, with demand expansion lagging behind supply growth.
- Emerging Applications: Demand from lithium-ion battery electrolyte solvents grew 25% YoY, but its share remains below 5%, insufficient to significantly lift overall market demand.
- Export Market: Imports declined 16% YoY in 2025; import dependency in 2026 is projected to fall below 35%. The Middle East (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) remains the primary import source, yet trade frictions have intensified volatility in cargo arrivals.

4. Policy & Trade Environment:
- The EU’s ongoing anti-dumping duty review on U.S. ethylene glycol—if resulting in higher duties—could indirectly reduce European procurement of Asian-sourced diethylene glycol monoethyl ether.
- Stricter domestic environmental inspections have lowered operating rates among small- and medium-sized solvent producers, potentially triggering regional supply tightness and short-term price spikes.

III. Outlook (Q2–Q3 2026)
1. Price Trend:
- Short Term (April–May): Affected by seasonal demand weakness, prices are expected to oscillate within RMB 7,500–7,800/ton. However, inventory at East China ports has declined to 42,000 tons (a 15% drop from the March peak); sustained drawdowns could trigger a short-term rebound.
- Medium Term (June–September): With the traditional “Golden September & Silver October” peak season approaching—and unsaturated polyester resin operating rates rising above 35%—prices may surpass RMB 8,000/ton. Nevertheless, upward pressure from elevated crude oil prices on production costs warrants caution.

2. Supply–Demand Balance:
- Annual consumption growth is projected at 4–5%, below supply growth of 6–7%, sustaining an overall loose supply–demand balance.
- Demand for premium-grade products (e.g., 99.9% purity) is growing steadily; branded suppliers such as Yida and Tianyin are gaining pricing power, widening regional price differentials (e.g., the price gap between Shandong and Guangdong now reaches RMB 3,400/ton).

3. Key Risks:
- Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East disrupting raw material transportation;
- Concentrated maintenance shutdowns at domestic coal-based plants causing regional supply shortages;
- RMB depreciation increasing import costs.